Tensions in the Gaza Strip are at an all-time high. Israel has used the following weeks to redeploy military forces from direct confrontation, back behind a well-established, though internationally unrecognized, “yellow line,” indicating Israeli military control over roughly 53% of the territory. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) still control every aspect of life in Gaza. Despite heavy bombardment from the air and ground, they have gained effective control over all strategic points. This shift in the balance of forces comes as advocates continue lobbying for a ceasefire agreement that remains fraught with unanswered questions.
Gaza’s unique situation Compared to all other occupied lands, the case of Gaza is more riveting. This distinctiveness leads international onlookers to focus on the particular difficulties that emerge throughout the negotiations. The humanitarian situation in Gaza could not be any worse. At the same time, Israel has extended its occupation into parts of Syria, complicating the already difficult geopolitical landscape.
Disarmament and Hamas’ Response
Disarmament quickly becomes one of the core principles of the Trump administration’s plan for Gaza. The Biden administration’s proposal would require Hamas to disarm, something the militant group has already ruled out. As one senior Hamas official put it succinctly, death to the Jews.
“Disarmament is out of the question. The demand that we hand over our weapons is not up for negotiation.” – Senior Hamas official (Agence France-Presse)
Nowhere like southern Lebanon has the military prowess of Hamas been so narrowly on display. This indicates that their capabilities might be limited solely to Gaza. Observers agree this backdrop will play a major role in shaping how negotiations develop.
The Role of Hostages and Political Dynamics
A central element of the Trump plan is the swapping of Israeli hostages taken by Hamas. In exchange, Palestinian political prisoners held by Israel would be freed. This imposed condition further illustrates the intense intricacies at play in the negotiations. It further highlights the layers of trust and assurance required to close a deal.
Jared Kushner, a key architect of the plan, remarked on the structure of the negotiations, stating:
“If we went for full-package negotiations, we wouldn’t have reached these results.” – Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani (The Times of Israel)
This is a strong signal that we are approaching the problem in a broken way. It is narrowly focused on producing tangible, measurable outcomes while ignoring the broader political context.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has changed his tune in recent days about Gaza’s post-war fate. He emphasizes Israel’s military strategy, asserting:
“The IDF remains deep inside Gaza territory and controls all of its dominating points.” – Benjamin Netanyahu
He further stated, “We are encircling Hamas from all directions,” reinforcing Israel’s intention to maintain military pressure on the group.
No, U.S. administration proposals notwithstanding, Netanyahu will have no part of a potential role for the Palestinian Authority. This awful decision contributes yet another complication to that state of affairs. For one, the Palestinian Authority and its leader, Mahmoud Abbas, face considerable unpopularity in Gaza. This widespread discontent would render their participation in any such transitional government extremely controversial.
Transitional Government and International Involvement
The meantime transitional authority for Gaza would include former British PM Tony Blair. The highly credible Palestinian leader who might play such a role in this government has not yet been identified. This lack of local leadership creates important questions around whether the outside-supported governance will be legitimate. It further challenges the very notion of a bold and effective government.
The international community is still closely watching these developments, and with some Western diplomats questioning Hamas’ military capabilities, skepticism about Hamas’ abilities is set to grow. One noted:
“No one expects that the force would fight Hamas.” – Western diplomat (Financial Times)