The impending federal government shutdown may cast a shadow over the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October, raising concerns about its potential impact. The shutdown likely will have no effect on the accuracy of those September CPI data. It has moved the goalpost on when this key economic barometer will be released. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) finished its data collection for September exactly on the cusp. As experts point out, this shutdown will likely lead to a decline in future collection rates for CPI data.
The October CPI report now runs the risk of being completely missed as a result of the ongoing government shutdown. This risk of uncertainty looms over the economy just as inflationary measures continue to be front and center for economists and policymakers. The core inflation rate, which excludes payments on food and energy, is pegged to increase by 0.3% for the third consecutive month. This figure excludes the sometimes erratic costs of food and energy. Core inflation year-over-year is expected to remain flat at 3.1%, a sign that inflation continues to be entrenched.
Even with these ups and downs, the deep impact of the government shutdown on inflation has yet to be felt. The average forecast from those 45 different economists has inflation settling into an annualized rate around 3% through the middle of 2026. Looking to get more involved in TechCrunch Events? Since the full effects of these tariffs on goods prices have not yet played out completely, future releases will likely reflect further changes to consumer pricing.
As of September, consumers were experiencing the largest increase in energy prices. This spike was the biggest factor in pushing a projected 0.4% increase in the headline CPI. Such an increase would be enough to push the year-over-year headline CPI rate up to a 16-month high of 3.1%. These numbers really reflect the ongoing, shifting pressures of our economy. Recent resilience amongst consumers should help stave off a larger deceleration in services inflation.
These BLS collections have continued through the end of September as it was easily planned for, mitigating any loss of data quality. That’s the big question analysts are watching for. Given the challenged data collection in October due to the shutdown, they worry that these disruptions will have a cascading effect on economic assessments in the future.