Russia is facing an enormous fuel crisis, with the majority of Russia’s regions recently experiencing infrastructure attacks on petrol infrastructure leading to acute shortages of petrol. That landscape has shifted profoundly for the worse. Ukraine’s recent drone strikes have knocked out around 17% of Russia’s refining capacity, a loss of 1.1 million barrels per day. In just a few short weeks, petrol prices have surged to record highs. Now motorists throughout the country are often waiting for hours in long lines to get their tanks filled.
August has historically been a testing ground for Russia’s fuel market. This year it has been aggravated by the continuing harvest season that has pulled away drivers and emergency maintenance work that has hampered various refineries. Ukraine’s recent attacks on key facilities inside Russia have further stressed a fragile system under tremendous pressure. This system is largely geared toward exporting fuel products.
Overall the civil impact of the drone strikes has been especially harsh in Crimea – which Russia annexed in 2014. The state and regional area experienced catastrophic damage to its fuel infrastructure. The outcome has been cataclysmic for the people who live in and travel to the region. To prevent further destruction, Russian authorities closed airports on the Crimean Peninsula to defend against drone strikes. Consequently, visitors now must use road transport, further burdening the already limited fuel supply.
Drivers in these cities including Dalnegorsk vent their anger as they queue for hours outside petrol stations. As one local resident complained, “We’ve been waiting for three hours! No one can tell us if we are going to get our cars gassed up. This attitude is indicative of greater public anxiety as citizens adjust to new difficulties presented by the fuel crisis.
In July, facing acute domestic demand, Russia retaliated by expanding its gasoline export ban. This was a bold move to help address the dire circumstances. From prediction to reality, economists are sounding alarms on the accelerating fuel squeeze. They warn that this trend is likely to persist deep into the winter, affecting transport, agriculture and industry.
As independent energy analyst Boris Aronstein recently wrote, these crises are cyclical. As he put it, “This is not the first fuel crisis, we have seen it many times, even before the war. He elaborated on the current situation: “The attacks are massive, coordinated, and repeated. They come in waves, and the refineries simply do not have time to repair the damage caused by the previous attack before the next one occurs.”
The Kremlin has confirmed the imposition of persistent fuel limits and attempted to control the narrative as public discontent grows. The head of Crimea appointed by the Kremlin remarked on the situation: “There is still a long way to go before the transport, agriculture and industrial sectors – or, most importantly, the army – experience any significant fuel shortages.”
This dizzying increase in costs has forced consumers to face a sobering truth. One observer noted that “filling up now is almost like a trip to a boutique: you set out for a litre, and return with an empty wallet and the philosophical thought that maybe walking isn’t so bad after all.” This is a great example of how the current economic climate is forcing people to re-evaluate their dependence on motor vehicles.
As Russia is forced to adapt more dramatically to these blows, the downstream effects on life for average Russians are starting to hit home. This unique combination of exorbitant prices and unprecedented unavailability is changing consumer behavior long-term and upending the country’s mobility in the process.