Scientists are closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a 1.3% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. This celestial body, larger than the Eiffel Tower, was first discovered in 2004 and immediately caught the attention of astronomers due to its size and potential threat. Measuring up to 300 feet (90 meters) in width, 2024 YR4 is comparable in size to the Tunguska asteroid that devastated a Siberian forest in 1908. However, experts assure that this asteroid is not a threat to Earth.
NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office has been actively observing 2024 YR4, which has received a rare rating of three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. This rating indicates a potential threat; however, new observations may soon lead to a reassignment of the asteroid to a zero rating, signifying no risk.
"There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in," said researcher Molly Wasser.
The asteroid was recently spotted from a telescope in Chile just before the new year, prompting further analysis. The likelihood of a strike in 2032 is currently estimated at 2.3%, or a one-in-43 chance. Yet, as updated data on its speed and trajectory become available, scientists expect these odds to drop to virtually zero.
"Most likely this one will pass by harmlessly. It just deserves a little more attention with telescopes until we can confirm that. The longer we follow its orbit, the more accurate our future predictions of its trajectory become," explained Colin Snodgrass, professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh.
The asteroid's potential impact has rocketed it to the top of official impact risk lists on both sides of the Atlantic. Despite this, NASA’s successful Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission in 2022 provides optimism for humanity's defense capabilities against such threats.
"This asteroid is of the scale that a mission like Dart could be effective, if required, so we have the technology and it has been tested," added Snodgrass.