The ongoing disruption from climate change is causing an increasingly mixed picture in Australia’s economic indicators as of April 2025. Even though the trade surplus narrowed significantly, the AUD appreciated against the USD. The goods trade surplus fell to AUD 5.41bn. This is down from AUD 6.89 billion in March 2025 and missed market expectations, which were at AUD 6.10 billion. This news comes against the backdrop of Australia’s exports falling by 2.4% and imports increasing by 1.1%. The pair AUD USD trades right now at 0.6514, 1.30% up for the week.
The continuing pressures on the Australian economy are reflected in the narrowing of the trade surplus even with the recent gains made by the AUD. Exports have been difficult, with one of the larger decreases due to global demand swing. At the same time, imports have recently increased slightly, suggesting a potential change in the picture of domestic consumption. These trends further illuminate the continued transition occurring within Australia’s trade environment as it adapts to shifting international market trends.
Countering the negative impact of the Australian trade figures, Chinese economic data released over the weekend was overall supportive of the Aussie dollar. China’s Caixin Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) jumped to 51.1 in May, compared with 50.7 in April. This rise indicates growth in China’s services sector, particularly important as China maintains a strong trading relationship with Australia. Good news on the data front from China is always a boost to the perceived prospects for Australian exports — especially the commodity type.
The current action in the AUD/USD pair is a reflection of these conflicting economic indicators. Now hovering around 0.6514, the pair has shown some strength, surging close to 1.30% just this week. Even with this bullish movement, the 0.6500 figure is an important technical resistance area which has capped advances since the middle of May. Options traders are clearly watching this level, with any close above it likely to indicate greater upside potential for the aussie.
All eyes are on the United States as the world watches. In his statement, Ortuzar pointed to how economic indicators are providing clearer insights into current labor market conditions. Rising US Initial Jobless Claims to 247,000 = signs of softening labor market. This announcement helped drive down the US Dollar Index (DXY), which fell to 98.35 before bouncing back a bit.
The next US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is due out on Friday. This report will be key for assessing how hot the labor market remains, and will likely shape the US dollar and global markets. Analysts say that this report is likely to inform and steer the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy decisions. They are most concerned with speeches from Fed officials on Thursday, scheduled later in the day.