The 2021 Aukus agreement, a tripartite security pact between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom, promises to significantly bolster Australia's naval capabilities. Signed by then-Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, the pact outlines the sale of up to five Virginia-class conventionally armed nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) from the United States to Australia. The first of these submarines is anticipated to arrive in 2032, replacing Australia's ageing Collins class diesel-electric submarines. However, the agreement has sparked debate over production capabilities and defense spending.
The United States faces a critical production shortfall in its submarine manufacturing. To satisfy both its own strategic needs and its commitments under Aukus, the U.S. must produce new submarines at a rate of 2.3 annually. Currently, the production rate lags at only half of what is necessary, with the U.S. submarine fleet numbering 49—significantly below its force-level goal of 66 attack submarines. This shortfall raises concerns about the potential impact on America's undersea capabilities if submarines are diverted to fulfill the Aukus agreement.
“Aukus, in principle, it is a great idea, but I have been very skeptical in practice. I remain skeptical, agnostic, as I put it, but more inclined based on new information I have gleaned. It would be crazy to have fewer SSNs Virginia-class [attack submarines] in the right place and time.” – Elbridge Colby
Elbridge Colby, a nominee for undersecretary of defense for policy during the Trump administration, has voiced these concerns, emphasizing the importance of increasing U.S. attack submarine production to meet both domestic and allied obligations.
“I believe we must increase US attack submarine production to meet US military requirements in the Indo-Pacific region – to ensure our servicemen and women are as well-armed as possible in the event of war – as well as to meet our obligations under Aukus Pillar One.” – Elbridge Colby
To support this ambitious undertaking, Australia has pledged $US3 billion to bolster America's shipbuilding industry, with $US500 million already paid as an initial installment. This financial commitment forms part of a broader defense budget strategy by the Albanese government. Australian defense spending is projected to reach $56 billion this year, equating to 2.02% of GDP. The government has outlined plans to increase this figure to over $100 billion by the 2033-34 financial year, representing 2.4% of GDP.
“The budget papers show the Albanese government is increasing defence spending to record levels.” – Richard Marles
Despite these efforts, Colby has urged Australia to further elevate its defense expenditure to align with international benchmarks.
“The main concern the United States should press with Australia, consistent with the president’s approach, is higher defence spending.” – Elbridge Colby
“Australia is currently well below the 3% level advocated for Nato by Nato secretary general Mark Rutte, and Canberra faces a far more powerful challenge in China.” – Elbridge Colby
The Aukus pact includes a crucial stipulation requiring certification from the U.S. commander-in-chief that relinquishing a submarine will not compromise U.S. naval capabilities. This condition underscores the strategic importance of maintaining a robust submarine fleet amidst rising geopolitical tensions.