New online betting platform Kalshi has experienced a massive increase in bets placed on the next papal conclave. Users have already collectively spent more than $10.6 million on this year’s event. Bettors are on fire! They’ve together bet more than $40 million on correctly guessing who the next pope will be on two celeb-proof prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket. This massive figure is a larger trend we’re seeing across the betting world.
Kalshi has opened the door to allow users to bet on just about anything. These involve the long-awaited release of the video game Grand Theft Auto VI as well as the daily briefings of White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt — while she lasted. The upcoming papal conclave has become a surprisingly magnetic lure for bettors. A Kalshi spokesperson noted that interest in the conclave is “roughly comparable to a big sporting event,” highlighting its popularity.
The platform has since seen more than 33,000 trades for the conclave. Remarkably, only 416 of these trades were handed down on Cardinal Robert Prevost. With those trades worth almost a half-million dollars, Prevost has just been voted in as Pope Leo XIV. Before the conclave, his chances of being elected were under 1%. The biggest payout from this wagering spree was $52,641 based on a $526 wager.
Kalshi, whose total funding now stands at an impressive $10.6 million, this sum is dwarfed by the eye-popping $132 million bet in the last U.S. presidential election. Polymarket bettors were responsible for more than $30 million of that total on papal wagers. Right now, U.S. users are restricted from accessing Polymarket because of Commodities Futures Trading Commission regulations.
Jonathan Greeson, a CFP and frequent sports betting risk advisor, warns bettors to be smart about these markets. He speaks to the need for approaching sports betting as a source of entertainment—not an investment—like most recreational gamblers.
“Your betting money should be included in your entertainment budget.” – Jonathan Greeson
He adds, “Like with investing, we should never bet more than we are willing to lose.”