Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, could soar to $150,000 before encountering a bear market, according to Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital. This prediction comes at the moment when Bitcoin’s default price cycle is undergoing a major transformation. Evolving investor profiles and increasing regulatory support are propelling this change.
Bitcoin’s price is tied to a four-year cycle that’s hard to beat. Typically these price increases occur following a “halving” event, in which the reward for miners who successfully create a new block is divided by two. It’s the new Bitcoin halving cycle since the last halving was in April of 2024. Historically, Bitcoin has seen huge declines following these events. It dropped by 70%-80% from its all-time highs. Now, to a surprising degree, analysts are arguing that this cycle will not follow those historical trends.
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has been significant in breaking this four-year cycle. After years of speculation, the first U.S. Bitcoin ETFs started trading in January 2024, ushering in a new turn for an increasingly competitive market landscape. In March 2024 – only a month ahead of the halving – Bitcoin took off, targeting a new all-time high over $73,000. This astonishing increase in value is a pre-halving anomaly.
Bitcoin’s price movements have followed a four-year cycle in history, appreciating massively from ~day 500 to ~day 720 after each halving. Unlike the previous four halving events, this time around, Bitcoin has already spiked to new all-time highs just weeks before the halving. “If this pattern was to repeat, then we should watch for potential acceleration between Q3 2025 and early Q1 2026,” stated Saksham Diwan, a research analyst at CoinDesk Data.
“In every previous cycle, new all-time highs came 12-18 months after the halving.” – Saksham Diwan
Investor sentiment is quickly changing, along with the market dynamics. This shift foreshadows that long-term holders and persistent institutional inflows are increasingly providing a cushion against the downside. So if we take the largest correction we’ve seen in this cycle thus far, it’s close to 26% on a closing basis. This drop off, while serious, is comparatively mild compared to other historical cycles that often had steeper declines.
Ryan Chow noted that “with increasing market maturity, long-term holder accumulation at all-time highs, and dampened volatility, the traditional four-year rhythm is being replaced by more liquidity-sensitive, macro-correlated behavior.” The market is maturing fast. This development could mean that the severe 70-80% drawdowns that Bitcoin has experienced in its past could soon be a thing of the past.
Matthew Hougan voiced doubt that traditional volatility patterns would persist. “I don’t think we’ve repealed volatility, but I think a) the forces that have historically created the four-year cycle are weaker than they were in the past and b) there are other very strong forces moving on a different timeline that I think will overwhelm our four-year tendency.”
In many ways, the new environment couldn’t be more different than what came before, as regulators are more willing than ever to interact with crypto. Matthew Hougan remarked on this shift, stating, “Interest rates are more likely to go down than up in the next year, and the fact that regulators and legislators are now willing to engage with crypto rather than steadfastly refusing to deal with it will dramatically reduce the risk of future blow-ups.”
“It’s not officially over until we see positive returns in 2026. But I think we will, so let’s say this: I think the four-year cycle is over,” Hougan added.
Bitcoin is charting its course through new and untested waters. Regulatory acceptance and changing investor sentiment are immensely affecting its future. Most industry insiders feel that the next few months will be decisive for the future of Bitcoin. Many question whether it can continue its current trajectory and avoid the corrections we’ve experienced in previous cycles.