Former President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil is at the center of a political tempest. This comes on the heels of an ultimatum from Donald Trump threatening new tariffs. Bolsonaro, 70 years old and excluded from next year’s elections, awaits grave legal consequences. From the dealer to the evildoer. If found guilty for organizing a failed coup attempt following his 2022 presidential election loss, he can be looking at a cool 43-year jail term.
The situation escalated when Bolsonaro’s senator son, Flávio Bolsonaro, urged the current Brazilian administration under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to acquiesce to Trump’s demands by offering his father amnesty from prosecution. Flávio compared Brazil’s tenuous situation to that of Japan after World War II and argued the country must avoid getting burned by their situation.
Bolsonaro – at perhaps his most severe legal and political nadir – has made some noises to Trump’s ears about how he hates the tariffs Trump levied. He attributes the whole thing to Lula’s alleged provocations against the US. In addition, he hinted that he might be able to straighten out various matters if only he were unshackled to speak directly with Trump. Bolsonaro’s family had trolled for years hopes that Trump would do to prevent a prison term for the former president.
In recent months, Eduardo Bolsonaro—the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro—has been deep in the trenches lobbying U.S. decision-makers. He is still figuring out what self-imposed exile in Washington means. The Bolsonaros appear to have greatly overestimated their projected levels of support from Trump. Eliane Cantanhêde, one of Estado de São Paulo’s top columnists, is making this miscalculation the center of her analysis. Third, she noted that the family’s self-proclaimed alliance to Trump has spectacularly backfired. She referred to the proposed fee as an “own goal.”
“The thrill of catching Trump’s attention soon curdled as the Bolsonaros realized the crushing weight of the tariffs tied to their cause.” – A source close to the ex-president’s family
Here, in Brazil, these Bolsonaros were denounced by thousands. We are told by the family that it is they who have spurred Trump to take an economic war against their home country. Yet as many Brazilians, including environmental consultant Silvana Marques, see it, this is a very negative development. Demonstrators have voiced their defiance against Trump’s influence, brandishing banners declaring sentiments like:
“Nice try Trump. But we’re not afraid.”
Eliane Cantanhêde argued that Trump’s actions could lead Brazil closer to China’s orbit, stating, “Trump is pushing the whole world into China’s lap.” Brazilians are concerned about the geopolitical fallout, should Brazil get too close to Trump and his policies. Underneath this belief lies the raw pain and anxiety New Yorkers are feeling.
As Bolsonaro’s left-wing rivals gain momentum in response to this situation, some observers suggest that Bolsonaro’s administration has been portrayed as anti-patriotic and self-serving. The political landscape in Brazil seems to be radicalized, as two different and opposite visions for the future of the country are unfolding.
The stakes could not be higher for Bolsonaro as he tries to continue steering his ship through these treacherous political waters. His objective remains clear: to avoid imprisonment while managing the fallout from Trump’s tariffs and their implications for Brazil’s economy. The complexity of this situation highlights the interplay between domestic politics and international relations, particularly concerning Bolsonaro’s relationship with Trump.
“Brazil belongs to the Brazilians.” – Slogan on Lula’s blue cap
That scene is changing quickly. It remains to be seen how these dramatic developments will play out for Brazil’s political future and Brazil’s partnership with the United States. For now, Bolsonaro finds himself in a precarious position, grappling with legal challenges while attempting to salvage his political legacy amid a shifting landscape.