California braces for an intense bout of wildfire-favorable weather as the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts dangerous conditions across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Strong offshore winds, reaching up to 70 mph, are expected to sweep through the region between Tuesday morning and Wednesday afternoon. The alarming combination of high winds and critically low humidity, predicted to drop as low as 5%, poses a significant threat of extreme fire behavior, complicating efforts to contain potential blazes.
The region's drought conditions are worsening, with Los Angeles experiencing historically low rainfall this season. The city is projected to receive only 4-7 inches of rain for the remainder of the rainy season, a stark contrast to the more than 25 inches received in each of the past two years. This shortfall exacerbates the risk by leaving vegetation dry and highly flammable, a situation further compounded by the lush growth fueled by last year's ample rainfall.
Ventura County, in particular, faces conditions potentially more severe than those encountered last week. The county's shrubs and grasses, nurtured by previous rains, now stand as ready fuel for fires. The current drought, expected to persist into March, has left Los Angeles's rainy season at a mere 2% of its normal level, with only 0.16 inches of rain recorded so far.
Fuel dryness across coastal southern California is nearing, and soon expected to surpass, levels typically seen during the peak wildfire season in mid-summer. January and February, traditionally the wettest months for Los Angeles with averages exceeding 7 inches out of the city's annual 13 inches of rain, have offered little respite. Even in the winter of 2006-2007, noted as Los Angeles's driest year in history, the city received over 3 inches of rain—much more than currently forecasted.
A stalled low-pressure system offshore is set to bring back the notorious Santa Ana winds. Weather models predict no rain for southern California throughout the rest of January and possibly into the first weeks of February. This dry spell is attributed to a blocking pattern known as a "Rex block," which diverts Pacific moisture either north into Alaska or south into Mexico, thereby exacerbating California's drought crisis.
“Do not do anything that could spark a fire.” – US National Weather Service (NWS) in Los Angeles
The NWS has issued stern warnings against any activities that could ignite fires. With approximately 95% of fires in California being human-caused, adherence to safety precautions becomes crucial to prevent catastrophic outcomes.