Canada is taking significant steps to reduce its population growth amid concerns over the capacity to provide services to newcomers. Recently, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne announced some pretty ambitious plans. He wants to ensure that non-permanent residents of Canada never make up more than 5 percent of the total population by the end of 2027. Perhaps not coincidentally, though, Canada is experiencing its largest-ever population boom. This fall represents one of the largest declines we’ve seen in recent history.
The most recent figures indicate that Canada’s population declined by 0.2% in Q3 2023. This drop leaves the population at approximately 41.6 million people. Down from 41.65 million on July 1. This deep decline is particularly egregious. That’s just the second documented quarterly decrease since 2020—a period defined by border restrictions due to COVID-19.
In stark opposition to this national trend, Alberta and Nunavut were the only two provinces/territories to see their population grow, by 0.2% in both cases. Every other province and territory experienced losses, pointing further to a developing demographic divide between the country’s east and west. As of right now, non-permanent residents make up about 6.8% of Canada’s overall population, a small dip from 7.3% last quarter.
The Canadian federal government plans to admit 395,000 new PRs per year by 2025. In the outyears, it’s 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027. Alongside these controls, the government plans to reduce the number of international student visas issued by over 100,000. The high point for arrivals will fall abruptly from 305,900 in 2025 to only 155,000 in 2026. After that, the cap increases somewhat modestly to 150,000 in both 2027 and 2028.
Champagne has said that Canada has “hit the limit of its ability to welcome” and offer access to services that immigrants need in recent years. This mood indicates increasing alarm among decisionmakers about countering the influx of new residents while addressing the stress it puts on infrastructure and communities.
Robert Kavcic, an economist, noted the implications of these population control measures: “In order to hit the non-permanent resident target share, we’ll need to see population growth run barely above zero through 2028, before settling back into a longer-term run rate of just under 1%.”
Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney sounded the alarm on this extraordinarily fast population growth. He contends that it has profoundly shaped most every economic conundrum facing Canadian policymakers.
“We’ve argued all along that the explosion in population growth – to nearly 1.3 million people within a year at one point – was playing a major role in many economic issues Canadian policymakers have been struggling to deal with.”
All of this means that Canada has some pretty profound demographic problems. There’s a lot at stake as policies will long shape our Jobs and Social Infrastructure in the future.