Consensus forecasts are calling for Employment Canada’s October report to reflect a net loss of 2,500 jobs. This report will be released in the coming weeks. The report, which is set to be issued by Statistics Canada on Friday, November 7, 2025, at 13:30, is expected to highlight ongoing challenges in the Canadian labor market. This monthly report is seen as one of the most important reports in determining the direction of economic outlooks and currency movements, especially those involving the Canadian dollar.
Analysts are predicting the Employment Change number to decrease by 2,500 jobs. This represents a significant deceleration compared to last month’s stellar 60.4K jobs growth. The expected recession will hold the unemployment rate at a relatively low level. Annual inflation is forecast to stay at 7.1%, the same as last month. Together, these figures create a troubling picture of Canada’s economic landscape.
Impact on the Canadian Dollar
The Canadian labor market statistics have a huge impact on the value of the Canadian dollar. A negative Employment Change figure is a classic signal that the labor market is contracting. If so, the implication would be stagnation for the rest of the economy. Therefore, this month’s predicted job losses may cause a decline in the Canadian dollar relative to other currencies.
…financial markets typically respond immediately to employment data, since it is one of the first indicators telling us whether the economy is healthy or sick. This recent dip possibility in the employment numbers could be damaging to currencies. This could heighten concerns about Canadian consumer spending and real GDP growth. Investors and analysts alike are looking to these developments for clues about where the job market is headed—towards recovery or deeper into a recession.
Implications for Monetary Policy
The much-anticipated September employment report will likely pile more pressure on the Bank of Canada to act with its monetary policy. Economic analysts suggest that an unfavorable Employment Change figure could prompt the central bank to consider lowering interest rates further. Lower interest rates would usually be expected to increase economic activity, since lower rates reduce the cost of borrowing, stimulating spending and investment.
The prior Employment Change came in at a very solid gain of 60.4K jobs. If we do start to shift into the negative territory, that would be a clear troubling trend to expect for policymakers. The Bank of Canada will need to continue weighing these positive employment numbers against inflation and other indicators as it charts its course in the coming months.
Context and Comparison with US Data
Canadian employment outlook dark indeed This follows hot on the heels of a much better-than-expected US ADP Employment report, depicting the resilience of the American labor market. Though our data from the US indicates resilience, it seems that Canada is being buffeted by backwinds that may deepen its economic woes. The gap between the two labor markets illustrates a tale of two cities, or in this case economic conditions, within North America.
The difference between the US and Canadian employment trends begs the question, though, what economic forces are at play across the border. A strengthening US economy would be a double-edged sword for Canada, boosting both Canadian exports and the overall trade relationship between the two countries. Everyone—from industry to planners to environmentalists to unionists—has been watching Canada’s precarious employment landscape. More importantly, they want to see how these numbers stack up against the broad economic conditions around North America.