By the end of June 2025, Canada had made a modest economic recovery. It was the only province or territory with a positive growth rate of 0.1%, according to Statistics Canada. It’s a notable jump after a 0.1% shrinkage in May. It also calls attention to the fluctuating economic activity we’ve experienced these past few months. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most famous measure of economic performance. It’s produced monthly and quarterly, providing an important look into the overall value of goods and services produced within the Canadian economy.
Statistics Canada is the only official source of GDP statistics. Its published statistics are hugely important in determining the shape of economic forecasts and the use of public policy. Those monthly GDP readings measure the entire economy’s activity on a month-by-month basis. By setting these figures against last month, they are acting as a very important early-detection system for analysts and policymakers. With consensus for the next GDP release likely to hold steady at 0.1%, the overall economic picture looks fairly bright.
Uncertainties remain despite the fact that the latest GDP data shows the Canadian economy is growing at a tepid pace. The forward-looking nature of GDP statements naturally creates risk, and Washington impacts analysts who are ever-watchful for signs of an unexpected downturn in economic activity. These types of differences can move markets dramatically, especially between the USD/CAD pair.
During Monday’s European trading session, USD/CAD was moving tentatively under Friday’s low just above 1.3820. Market participants are uncertain and watching these developments, likely very closely. Even small revisions to GDP numbers can create a wave of volatility in foreign exchange markets. Bulls need to keep an eye on the June 16 low of 1.3540. On the downside, if USD/CAD falls under this mark, it might fall to the psychological barrier of 1.3500 and possibly reach the September 25 low of 1.3420.
The upcoming GDP release on August 29, 2025, at 12:30 PM ET will be closely scrutinized by economists and traders alike. We hope that this report will illuminate the direction of the Canadian economy. Finally, it will discuss the impact on the USD/CAD exchange rate. The excitement before this release shows how much GDP symbolizes the overall state of the economy and the strength of the dollar.