Hezbollah, a Shia paramilitary group, began launching rockets, drones, and missiles at Israel on October 8, 2023, standing in solidarity with Hamas. Over the course of nearly a year, the two sides engaged in continuous cross-border fire, escalating tensions in the region. Israel responded by intensifying its air campaign and deploying ground troops, leading to a significant escalation and resulting in devastating consequences for both nations.
The conflict wreaked havoc across Lebanon, with approximately 4,000 fatalities reported, including 1,000 women and children, according to the Lebanese health ministry. The infrastructure sustained extensive damage, as many buildings were either destroyed or severely damaged. The town of Metula in Israel bore the brunt of the bombardment, leaving many structures without roofs or damaged by fires from rockets and drones. Since the evacuation of the area in October 2023, only 16 of Metula's 1,700 residents have returned.
Similarly, the Lebanese village of Kfar Kila, just 500 meters from Metula, was home to about 10,000 people before the war but is now largely in ruins. The conflict displaced numerous Israelis from their homes in the north of the country, as the violence persisted.
A ceasefire was established at the end of November, halting a two-month-old Israeli ground invasion and more than a year of cross-border aerial attacks. This 60-day truce was mediated by France and the US, favoring Israel significantly. As a result of the conflict, Hezbollah suffered substantial losses of personnel and military equipment, including its longtime secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah. In contrast, Israel reported the loss of about 80 soldiers and 47 civilians.
The truce's impact extended beyond the battlefield, affecting diplomatic relations between Washington and Jerusalem. Some officials within the White House opposed allowing the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to delay their withdrawal from Lebanon. The upcoming weekend is critical as the ceasefire nears expiration on Sunday, with neither side having fully met their obligations. The outcome could shape the future of this protracted conflict.
David Azoulai expressed his reservations about the ceasefire:
“I was against the ceasefire. I would rather keep doing this for another year, or two years, if it means that Hezbollah is completely gone from the border.”
His sentiments echo concerns about long-term security:
“If we stop now, residents will come back, we will rebuild, we will reinforce security. But we will be letting [Hezbollah] decide when the next disaster like 7 October will be.”
The uncertainty of returning home weighs heavily on residents. An anonymous source described their recent visit to their house as unsettling:
“I went back to visit my house last week and it was fine, there were no rockets, but it still felt strange, like it wasn’t home any more.”
Safety remains a paramount concern for families considering returning:
“I will go back when they say it’s safe, but it’s different for my daughters. They have to decide whether they want to risk their children’s lives.”
The broader geopolitical dynamics play a significant role in shaping decisions:
“There are a lot of outside forces shaping these decisions. We don’t know what will happen, and it is not up to us.”
Despite the challenges faced by Lebanon during the conflict, some Israelis feel a sense of retribution:
“You can see looking at the Lebanese side that we made them pay a price.”
Ron Ben-Yishai highlighted the potential ramifications on international relations:
“There are officials in the White House who are close to the president and oppose allowing the IDF to delay the withdrawal from Lebanon. What happens over the weekend will be critical not only to the Lebanese theatre but also to the relationship between the administrations in Washington and Jerusalem.”