The CNBC CFO Council just held its most illuminating quarterly survey. In it, more than three-quarters of chief financial officers from companies large enough to be publicly traded in just about every segment of the U.S. economy voiced their worries over an upcoming economic recovery. That Q1 survey, conducted March 10 – March 21, had 20 CFOs responding. So, though respondents feel optimistic about their own industries, 75% of them share a pessimistic view of the overall U.S. economy.
The number one issue identified by executives in the survey was uncertainty caused by the trade war and its future prospects. Eight in 10 C-suite execs are jittery about what’s ahead. At the same time, the White House is signaling very strongly that it intends to push for a radical overhaul of global economic policy. This political-ideological position bodes ill for the economic weather to come. In fact, 95% of CFOs report that these policies do prevent them from collecting the data they need to make responsible business decisions.
There was one strong point of agreement from the survey — a recession in the economy no later than the second half of 2025. Tariffs are a big driver of this gloomy forecast, too. Equally important, they are viewed as the leading trigger for a looming recession. What’s more, 60% of CFOs predict this recession starting in the second half of this year.
A recent survey of CFOs found that 30% ranked economic and market uncertainty as their greatest external business risk. This new, unrelenting worry only intensifies the burdens they’re already shouldering. Other notable risks mentioned are inflation (25% of the respondents) and consumer demand (20% of respondents). The view that tariffs will bring about “resurgent inflation” is one held by 90% of CFOs surveyed.
Overall, the survey revealed that 75% of CFOs are optimistic about their own industries. Perhaps more importantly, they exhibit a deep sense of pessimism regarding the state of the economy in general. Ninety percent of us expect moderate or mild economic impact. Of these, the majority—defined here as all except the top quintile—anticipate only middling economic performance.
"Too chaotic for business to navigate effectively," stated one CFO respondent, reflecting the general unease felt within the business community.
The current environment, described by some as "complete chaos, without an end game strategy," underscores the challenges businesses face in navigating these uncertain times.