Chicago’s homicide rate has drawn significant attention recently, particularly after former President Donald Trump labeled the city as the “world’s most dangerous.” In 2024, Chicago would be on pace for a homicide rate of 17.5 murders per 100,000 residents. Sadly, this shocking statistic places the city 14th nationally among U.S. cities with populations over 100,000. This rate is significantly above the national average of approximately 4.6 homicides per 100,000 residents.
The story behind Chicago’s rising crime numbers gets more complex. Now in 2024, the top four cities by murder rate are all located in states led by Republicans. Jackson, Mississippi tops the list with a shocking rate of 78.7 fatal incidents per 100,000 residents. Coming in right behind them is Birmingham, Alabama at 58.8, St. Louis, Missouri at 54.1 and Memphis, Tennessee at 40.6. These cities have been targeted by right- and left-wing America as the epicenters of crime and misgovernance in America’s cities.
In late 2024/early 2025, Chicago is responding to a wave of 278 homicides. That’s a record low number of 118 fewer murders than last year at this time. Projections show the city is headed towards just over 412 deaths this year. This high rate imminently means an expected 15 of every 100,000 residents perish. This trend points to a significant increase in public safety. According to national estimates, the U.S. murder rate fell by 15% in 2024 after one of the largest increases in American history, a singular surprise upswing that few predicted and even fewer expected to last.
Like Chicago’s crime rates, the homicide rate in many other cities has declined drastically. Washington D.C., for instance, has seen its homicide rate fall by about 40% since 2020 and is on track for a 50-year low in 2025. Even Baltimore, once thought immune from the decline, has seen a drop of nearly 40% since 2020. As a result of this, in 2024 it has become the fifth worst in the murder rate for cities above 50,000.
In Memphis, which led the nation’s homicide rate in 2023, officials reported a 22% decrease in homicides for 2024 and an anticipated 25% drop for 2025. Perhaps most notably, Birmingham made headlines this summer after successfully lowering its murder rate by more than 50% since January. By 2025, St. Louis is projected to experience a 10% per year reduction of homicides.
The striking differences between these two cities should provoke serious reflection on the nature of governance and public policy related to the prevention of crime. Trump’s comments regarding Chicago have sparked debates among political leaders and residents about the effectiveness of local governance and law enforcement strategies.
“Do we go to Chicago or do we go to a place like New Orleans, where we have a great governor, Jeff Landry, who wants us to straighten out a very nice section of this country that’s become quite, you know, quite tough, quite bad?” – Donald Trump
Crime rates are going up in most cities and towns across the country. Advocates have long called for the use of complete data to better understand these alarming trends. To illuminate the critical importance of precise crime data, Dr. Thaddeus Johnson said that “It’s the most reliable data point.
As Chicago continues to navigate its public safety challenges, it remains at the center of a national dialogue on crime and safety in urban areas. The ongoing shifts in homicide rates serve as a reminder of the complexities involved in addressing violence and crime prevention across diverse communities.