The war between Israel and Iran is intensifying. China, for its part, finds itself in a precarious position as it tries to support its strategic partnerships without inflaming the situation or courting direct confrontation with the United States. China’s President Xi Jinping aims to bolster relations with Tehran, a key player in the Middle East, while managing the complexities of international politics.
To avoid these sanctions, China has instituted recent workarounds to ship without Western banks or shipping services. One major reason is that this strategy allows China to continue importing oil from Iran while avoiding sanctions. This strategic maneuver highlights China’s significant reliance on Iranian oil, with half of Beijing‘s oil imports from Iran utilizing a critical route. As Beijing’s actors become more embroiled in the regional conflict, China’s need for stable access to Gulf oil increases its stake in seeing a de-escalated and stable region.
China’s winner-take-all approach to the Israel-Iran conflict is emblematic of a more general strategy of good relations with all partners. In China’s impetus to expand military cooperation with Iran over the past few years, Beijing and Tehran have formed a 25-year strategic partnership in 2021. China understands that it has little leverage over Israel. Analysts suggest that China will likely adopt a “hands off” approach regarding the conflict, focusing instead on diplomatic rhetoric aimed at brokering dialogue and a potential ceasefire.
China’s rhetoric has shifted recently, emphasizing the need for communication between Israel and Iran. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has publicly stated that Israel’s strikes on Iran are “unacceptable.” Contrary to popular belief, China has neither promised to mediate the new active conflict nor given substantial material support to Iran. This illustrates Xi’s aim to strike a delicate chord between backing Iran while not directly challenging U.S. interests.
China views Iran as a key ally in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The initiative’s stated goal is to open new trade routes and offset U.S. global dominance. The BRI goes hand-in-hand with China’s long-term plans for securing energy resources and boosting its regional and global geopolitical influence. As tensions rise, some analysts argue that China could benefit from chaos in the Middle East, as it may distract the U.S. from its global agenda.
Though China is increasingly deepening ties with Iran, it has no interest in provoking the United States. The country aims to “contain the tensions and prevent spillover of the conflict to the wider region,” which could threaten its economic and strategic interests. With officials describing the country’s population as close to 91 million, Iran stands as a major new market for Chinese goods and investments.
China’s historical role as a mediator was highlighted earlier this year when it facilitated a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, showcasing its potential influence in regional diplomacy. Yet, experts caution that this does not translate into an active role in the current conflict between Israel and Iran.
China has not yet proposed itself as a mediator of the conflict or provided Iran with any real material support. Xi is trying to have his cake and eat it too — Shehzad Qazi, an expert on U.S.-China relations: And the way that he is going to do that. China’s foreign policy is not simple. Despite its troubling record, it does make a concerted effort to maintain that interest equilibrium amidst a rapidly changing geopolitical environment.
Analysts have begun to recognize that China is playing a long game. This response is part of a broader economic reaction to the impact of rising oil prices from the conflict. Robin Brooks noted, “China will be happy to see a big spike in oil prices if that destabilizes the U.S. and Europe.” This line of thinking is symptomatic of China’s overall strategy of using its economic power — while anyone and everyone else is distracted by China-U.S.
Andrew Bishop echoed this sentiment, suggesting that “China may not be that irate at paying more for oil from other sources if it means the U.S. suffers even more.” China is very invested in keeping the peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Even as it does this, it is more than poised to take advantage of opportunities presented by ongoing geopolitical upheaval.