As tensions flare between Israel and Iran, China has become increasingly trapped in a dangerous geopolitical quagmire. The new president Xi Jinping is keen to bolster relations with Tehran. He hopes to prevent such an open confrontation, above all as the U.S. increases its engagement in the standoff. This delicate balancing act reflects China’s broader strategic interests in the region, especially its reliance on Gulf oil and its ambitions to counter U.S. influence through initiatives like the Belt and Road.
China has developed a series of workarounds to facilitate oil imports from Iran without triggering sanctions imposed by Western nations. Together, these practices enable Chinese actors to bypass sanctions imposed by Western banks and shipping providers. Paradoxically, they are able to assure reliability of essential oil supplies from Iran, even while managing the political risk. Iran, with a population of nearly 91 million, represents a significant market opportunity for China. Given this potential, Xi’s overarching strategic ambitions are built on working in partnership with Iran.
China’s leverage over Israel is fairly narrow, making its position even more complicated. Amid these rising tensions, analysts have seen a marked change in China’s tone. They’re now calling for more dialogue and advocating for an immediate ceasefire between the two countries. This change reflects the parties’ keen interest in keeping any spillover from the conflict to an absolute minimum. Such spillover would put China’s economic and increasingly strategic interests at risk.
Yet another factor complicating China’s calculations is the backdrop of U.S. military involvement. The potential for Washington’s intervention weighs heavily on Beijing‘s strategic decisions. The benefits that China will reap from the Middle East’s chaos. This kind of turmoil would serve to distract and pull U.S. resources away from the Indo-Pacific, providing China with the opportunity to improve its harmful regional influence.
During this time, of course, China has taken important steps to deepen its partnership with Iran. This partnership came to a head with a 25-year agreement signed in 2021, increasing economic, military, and security collaboration. The two countries have engaged in combined arms exercises on one another’s territory. It demonstrates that their alliance is deepening amid increasing tensions with Western nations.
In light of recent events, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed strong disapproval of Israel’s military actions against Iran, stating that such strikes were “unacceptable.” This public expression of support serves only to double down on China’s intention to protect Iran’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
As observers have pointed out, one thing Xi is very interested in maintaining is balance. He knows this is a very touchy and sensitive situation. Others argue China would actually rejoice in higher oil prices if they served to destabilize the U.S. and Europe. Commonwealth researchers found that if China were to go too far in supporting Iran, it risks undermining China’s wider strategic interests.
“China will be happy to see a big spike in oil prices if that destabilizes the U.S. and Europe.” – Robin Brooks
“China may not be that irate at paying more for oil from other sources, if it means the U.S. suffers even more.” – Andrew Bishop
Analysts from the Eurasia Group emphasize that China seeks to “contain the tensions and prevent spillover of the conflict to the wider region,” recognizing that regional instability could disrupt its critical economic interests.
As Beijing works to navigate through this complex terrain, it continues to advance its interests and objectives across the Middle East. The Belt and Road Initiative serves as a focal point for China’s efforts to expand influence globally while countering what it perceives as U.S. hegemony. This new initiative seems to be all about obtaining more Iranian oil. It seeks to dominate strategic maritime chokepoints, like the Strait of Hormuz.