At the recent G20 meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, China's top diplomat Wang Yi expressed Beijing's willingness to play a constructive role in resolving the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. This comes amid significant shifts in U.S. policy, as former President Donald Trump has taken steps that appear to sideline Ukraine in favor of direct talks with Russia. Trump's bold move includes a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin, which has adjusted the focus away from isolating Moscow.
Wang Yi informed his fellow G20 foreign ministers of China's readiness to contribute to a political resolution. Previously, Wang emphasized the need for all stakeholders, including Europe and Global South countries, to be involved in the peace process. However, during the Johannesburg discussions, he refrained from reiterating this viewpoint, suggesting a possible shift or recalibration in China's approach.
"China supports all efforts conducive to peace (in Ukraine), including the recent consensus reached between the United States and Russia." – Wang Yi
The situation has drawn skepticism regarding China's actual involvement. Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center expressed doubt about China's substantive engagement, given Beijing's reluctance to undertake geopolitical risks. He noted that Trump initially sought Chinese involvement but now feels confident in securing a deal with Putin independently.
"China is happy not to be called on the spot to deliver because they don't know what Trump will demand." – Alexander Gabuev
The G20 meeting highlighted contrasting positions among member states, with Australia, Germany, and the United Kingdom rallying behind Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Trump, however, took a different stance by labeling Zelenskiy a "dictator," further complicating diplomatic dynamics.
Cui Hongjian from Beijing Foreign Studies University emphasized China's supportive stance toward easing U.S.-Russia relations and its potential benefits for China. Yet, he warned of the risks if China remains absent from mediation efforts, which could allow the U.S. to leverage improved relations with Russia against Chinese interests.
"If China participates in mediation, it can reduce the risk of the United States using the easing of relations with Russia to harm China's interests." – Cui Hongjian
Despite these developments, Trump's belief in securing a favorable deal with Putin persists. Gabuev points out that Trump perceives no need for Chinese assistance in achieving this goal.
"Trump wanted China's involvement initially but now he's spoken to Putin. He is under the impression that he doesn't need China to get a deal with Putin and Putin will give him a perfect and better deal going forward." – Alexander Gabuev