China has stepped up its use of a strategy to isolate Taiwan known as the “anaconda strategy.” This tactic, like all forms of coercion, tries to squeeze the most possible until Taiwan caves. This two-pronged approach indicates the increasing pressure from Chinese energy leader Xi Jinping. He has been methodically increasing the pressure on the independent-minded island. Yet on both those issues, Xi Jinping’s belligerence and assertiveness have completely reshaped the geopolitical landscape. Most analysts see this shift as a reaction to what they criticize as weakness and indecision in U.S. foreign policy in the era of Donald Trump.
In a recent phone call with Trump, Xi Jinping made it clear that he expects the United States to formally recognize Taiwan as an “integral part of the postwar international order.” This extraordinary statement firming up China’s unilateral claim over its own breakaway province of Taiwan. It demonstrates, more importantly, the increasing pressure on the United States to reconsider its place in the region.
Further heightening the tensions, China has enacted retaliatory sanctions and boycotts against Japan for its support of Taiwan. The situation escalated further when China’s consul general in Osaka issued a controversial tweet demanding the “decapitation” of Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a message that was later deleted but reflected China’s growing impatience with regional opposition.
China’s military posture has hardened as well. The country has moved much of its military hardware and firepower closer to contested islands in the East China Sea. This action points toward further escalation in hostilities. As the relationship between China and Western democracies deteriorates, analysts warn of hazardous blind spots that could exacerbate conflicts in the region.
Xi Jinping’s administration has come under fire over the past months for its approach to trade relations. Analysts note that he successfully repulsed Trump’s attempts at imposing tariffs earlier this year, indicating a resilient Chinese economy despite external pressures. One of China’s tactics for insidious foreign aggression towards Taiwan is to delay or cancel promised arms packages, which serves to further isolate the island.
Hal Brands, a recognized analyst of U.S.-China relations, remarked on the broader implications of Xi Jinping’s strategy:
“His method is encompassing, steadily escalating coercion … This is a classic ‘anaconda strategy’, meant to get progressively tighter until Taiwan yields. Isolation and demoralization will ultimately produce capitulation, the thinking goes.”
This approach prioritizes not only military deterrence but economic and diplomatic isolation. China employs a variety of methods to undermine Taiwan. These tactics encompass espionage, cyber-sabotage, mass surveillance, and targeted disinformation campaigns designed to delegitimatize Taiwan’s pro-Western popularly elected government.
This strategy embodies the idea that while the use of military force is still on the table, it’s not the preferred option. Rather, China is focused on achieving its goals through long-term coercion and strategic positioning. Yet the military threats’ interplay with economic pressure shows a deliberate attempt to shift Taiwan’s political landscape.
“Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s first preference is to win without a devastating, unpredictable war,” – Hal Brands
The implications of this strategy go far beyond Taiwan proper. China is doing it much more aggressively. Translated into practice, this means that regional powers and international stakeholders alike have to deal with an ever-chaotic and bilateral world. If successful, the strategies Xi Jinping is using could reshape regional power balances and up-end long-standing international rules and norms.
The implications of this strategy extend beyond Taiwan itself. As China pursues its goals, neighboring countries and global powers are forced to navigate an increasingly complex and volatile environment. The strategies employed by Xi Jinping could redefine regional dynamics and challenge established international norms.