In April, Chinese refiners recorded an extraordinary throughput of 14.2 million barrels per day. That’s a 5% dip from last month and a 1.3% decline from this time last year. Believe it or not, oil demand has plummeted. Last month, it fell back to 13.8 million barrels per day, a 3.9% dip from March and a 5.3% drop from the same period last year. Crude oil price remained constant despite the drop in processing and demand. The market digested the result of a macro-focused phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that resulted in little substantive headway on major points of contention.
The ICE Brent crude oil price has continued to be robust, holding above $65 per barrel. This stability continues despite production and demand numbers continuing to jump around. Analysts note that while geopolitical tensions and ongoing negotiations can create volatility, the current state of the market appears resilient in the face of these challenges.
Chinese Aluminium Production Reaches New Heights
Unlike the reduced crude oil processing statistics, Chinese primary aluminium production showed strong growth in April. The country output 3.75 million tonnes of aluminium, up 4.2% compared to the same period last year. To put this all into context, last month, Chinese aluminium production hit an all-time high. This impressive accomplishment is a testament to the industry’s ingenuity and resilience, and fulfillment of increasing domestic and global demand.
Year-to-date figures have Chinese aluminium output up 3.4% over last year’s pace. This increase has pushed total production up to a staggering 14.79 million tonnes. Global aluminium production continues to increase. Chinese manufacturers have spotted opportunities in the global market, despite uncertainty due to shifting commodity prices and global trade relations.
The key reason for this growth, according to industry experts, is three-fold. They point to an unprecedented level of investment in production infrastructure and a regulatory climate supportive of capacity expansions. With international demand for aluminium skyrocketing, China is likely to remain the dominant global producer for the foreseeable future.
U.S. Agricultural Developments and Natural Gas Market Pressures
As far as agricultural advancements go in the United States, these advances are taking tremendous steps forward. Soybeans were 66% of the way planted as of May 18, well above the five-year average of 53%. Farmers may be generally enthused by the brisk pace of planting. They are hoping to capitalize on all the good growing conditions we’ve seen this season so far.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture just released some very welcome news. What’s more, 52% of that winter wheat crop is currently rated good-to-excellent! This encouraging review points towards potentially good harvests ahead and contributes to a generally optimistic outlook for large farm production this year.
The natural gas market has been rocked by unexpected pressures in the last few months. Front-month Henry Hub futures fell more than 6.6% yesterday. Even with the continued weakness primarily due to the strength of gas injections into storage and cooler temperature adjustments made in the southern U.S. states. These factors have worked to drive natural gas prices low. Consequently, analysts are currently looking at entirely different market dynamics heading into the coming months.
USDA experts anticipate a tightening of supply in the U.S. corn market in the 2025/26 season. This welcome improvement depends on the luck of the weather though, having a healthy growing season without a drought. This year’s forecast should be encouraging news to consumers worried about rising food prices and the stability of our food market.
Geopolitical Tensions Impacting Crude Oil Supply
At the same time, continued geopolitical tensions over Iranian nuclear negotiations are fuelling speculation over possible impacts on crude oil supply. As negotiations run into roadblocks, analysts are watching carefully to see how these changes can affect oil markets around the world.
Despite all of this uncertainty, crude prices have been able to largely defy gravity so far. US market participants are keeping a close eye on the balance between geopolitical events and supply-demand fundamentals.