The recent Los Angeles wildfires have been deemed the most destructive in the city's history and are poised to become the costliest in United States history, according to a new study. These catastrophic events, which began on January 7, have claimed at least 28 lives and obliterated over 10,000 homes. A collaborative study by 32 US and European experts from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) project has unveiled that climate change significantly heightened the risk of these fires. Using advanced climate models and historical weather data, the study compared current fire conditions to those in a preindustrial climate, revealing a stark increase in the likelihood of such devastating events due to global warming.
The study highlighted that the hot, dry, and windy conditions that fueled the fires were made 35% more likely by global heating caused by fossil fuel combustion. Furthermore, the low rainfall from October to December has become approximately 2.4 times more likely than during the preindustrial era. This shift in climatic conditions exemplifies a phenomenon of climate "whiplash"—transitions between extremely wet and dry conditions that exacerbate disasters and have been increasing worldwide due to climate change.
“Climate change increased the risk of the devastating LA wildfires.” – Dr Clair Barnes
The research underscores significant challenges with water infrastructure, which struggled to meet extreme demands during critical periods like the Eaton and Palisades wildfires. The resulting pollution from these fires now travels vast distances, impacting populations far beyond California's borders. In North America alone, wildfire pollution has contributed to an average of over 25,000 deaths annually, with this figure climbing by 3% each year.
“A deadly combination of factors came together to turn this wildfire into a disaster – climate change set the stage. These fires have highlighted just how vulnerable California is to winter wildfires, underscoring the need for better preparation for a more dangerous future.” – Roop Singh
The study also found that in Los Angeles, two years of wet conditions had led to robust vegetation growth, which provided ample fuel when drier conditions resumed. This pattern illustrates how even favorable weather can inadvertently set the stage for future calamities when climatic shifts occur abruptly.
The implications of this research are far-reaching. Without a swift transition away from fossil fuels, California—and indeed much of the world—faces a future that is progressively hotter, drier, and more prone to wildfires.
“Without a faster transition away from planet-heating fossil fuels, California will continue to get hotter, drier and more flammable.” – Dr Clair Barnes
Pollution from the wildfires does not remain confined to their immediate vicinity. It often travels hundreds or even thousands of kilometers, affecting much larger populations than the immediate threat of flames and heat. This extends the impact of wildfires from local disasters to national health crises.
“Turning away is bringing harms and destruction that are increasingly impossible to ignore.” – Prof Yuming Guo
The experts involved in this study emphasize the urgent need for action. Dr. Friederike Otto remarked on the broader implications of fossil fuel warming across the United States.
“From violent hurricanes in the east, to nightmarish wildfires in the west, Americans are experiencing the devastating consequences of fossil fuel warming.” – Dr Friederike Otto