Then in April, U.S. consumers showed sharply mixed spending patterns as economic uncertainty and tariffs on consumer goods loomed. Store visits surged year-over-year at superstores, grocery stores, and clothing retailers during the first two full weeks of the month. One note from Walmart’s Chief Financial Officer, John David Rainey, was particularly relevant. He pointed out that the country’s top seller has observed zero “COVID-type buying from customers.”
According to anonymized data from JPMorgan, total spending skyrocketed 3.8% between April 1 and April 15. This jump marks a dramatic departure from the roughly 2.7% increase seen in March. Consumers, too, are optimistic, but with caution—a sentiment reflected in this increase. As experts have predicted, they’re likely to quickly turn around and adopt more frugal spending habits in the months ahead. NielsenIQ’s Steve Zurek expects U.S. consumers to be more cost-conscious and value-focused as uncertainty begins to rise.
Airfares experienced the largest decrease across categories in March, dropping 5.3% after a 4% decrease in February. This trend could be taken to indicate that consumers are rethinking their travel plans in the face of economic headwinds. Sales of existing homes are now at their lowest rate since 2009. The National Association of Realtors, which tracks this decline, says that the drop mirrors increased reluctance among buyers to commit to large purchases.
Big airlines including Alaska Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Delta and American Airlines have retracted their 2025 profit projections. Such a drastic change illustrates the overwhelming level of unpredictability upending the industry today. Simultaneously, Walmart’s sales correlations have gotten more strangely erratic week over week and even day by day.
Craig DeSerf, executive manager of Gulf Coast Chevrolet Buick GMC, echoed the sentiments of many retailers, stating, “Everybody’s buying now because they’re afraid the prices are going up.” These impacts are illustrated by the data. Nearly 12% of consumers brought forward their vehicle purchase because of tariffs, and nearly 10% brought forward their furniture purchase from where they would have bought it.
Michael Bettenhausen, a dealer in Illinois, confirmed this urgency, saying that there is “no doubt” that recent tariffs have spurred sales significantly. According to Charlie Chesbrough, a senior economist at Cox Automotive, demand in the automotive sector refuses to roll over. This path of resilience holds strong even as the economy wobbles. Perhaps one reason for his FT-stirring optimism, he noted that new vehicle sales were up 22% from last year’s adjusted pace. Plus, they were up more than 8% on a passenger-miles basis through early April.
Tiffany Armstrong of Dallas is a great example of a consumer leading the charge into this future. She’s done a flip on where she spends her pants money, looking for value online and favoring the big box stores. Armstrong expressed her concerns about upcoming prices: “Between the uncertainty with pricing and the market, it doesn’t seem like a wise time.”
John David Rainey articulated the confusion faced by shoppers: “There’s so much uncertainty right now that shoppers just don’t know what to do.” He went on to say that in the absence of certainty, the responsibility falls on Americans to continue to be prudent with their economic decisions at home. Zurek noted the hesitance among shoppers: “When a shopper or a consumer is not sure what kind of financial punches they’re going to be taking in the future, they’re going to try to hoard cash.”
On balance consumer sentiment indicates a mix of urgency and concern. According to an unnamed source involved in retail analysis, “It’s taken a little bit extra effort … to get the consumer to understand that the tariffs haven’t impacted us yet.” Retailers are experiencing a complex environment where price volatility prompts urgent purchasing decisions while simultaneously causing consumers to be more conservative.
In fact, Chris Nicholas, CEO of Walmart-owned Sam’s Club said that the warehouse club has not witnessed any dramatic shifts in initial purchases. Consumers aren’t slowing their purchases of larger goods such as appliances and electronics. Bright spots of retail exist where foot traffic and sales are booming again. At the same time, some bucks the trend and continue to be valuable as consumer priorities shift.