Copper prices have spiked to an all-time high as tariffs on imports from Mexico are speculated from the United States. On Wednesday, copper futures in New York surged to an all-time high of $5.374 per pound. They eventually agreed on a figure closer to $5.24 per pound. This jump comes after news spread that President Donald Trump is likely to announce tariffs on copper imports within the next few weeks. New York copper futures are currently trading at a staggering 17% premium. This surge is indicative of increased fear among US buyers.
As far as the US Geological Survey is concerned, copper is not a rare earth mineral or even one of the 50 “critical minerals. Yet the Department of Energy has called it a strategic material for energy. By 2035, the demand for copper will increase eight-fold. The International Energy Agency forecasts that global supply will meet just 70% of that demand. This gap has exacerbated fears about future supply that have fueled much of the recent price spike.
Worries over possible future tariffs had US buyers hoarding copper, driving prices up 30% this year. This jump has exceeded gold—for the past month or so gold has been rising by 16%—and the major US stock indexes. Tight market Hansen exposes that the recent jump in New York copper futures is not due to consumer demand. Rather, it captures dramatic changes in commodity forward US stockpiles due to tariff speculation.
Beyond tariff issues, fundamentals are driving bullish copper prices. Glencore, another major actor in the commodities market, has just suspended production at one of its copper smelters in Chile. This federal decision has produced an acute shortage in supply and significantly increased the upward pressure on prices. Goldman Sachs analysts expect a rush of new copper imports, with 200,000 tons more expected in just April alone. At the same time, Bloomberg is reporting that shipments of copper to the US this month run around 500,000 tons—far exceeding the normal monthly import level of roughly 70,000 tons.
And the escalating copper demand isn’t just due to increased consumption, it’s from increased stockpiling as tariffs panic people. Furthermore, its significance in the energy and technology sectors is increasing. Even as the world moves toward electronic vehicles and other advanced technologies, copper continues to be the connective force and is key for these future innovations. Further, Chinese urbanization and infrastructural investment remain more than a passing influence on the copper market.