Just last month, a New Mexico local police department raised national ire. In January 2023, they issued their first intelligence report centered on the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua (TdA). The suit claimed that TdA had directed its members to “shoot at or assault” police personnel. This claim was the basis for dire warnings from multiple federal agencies. The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) went so far as to send a bulletin to state and local law enforcement, warning them of possible attacks from the gang.
Assistant Secretary of DHS, Tricia McLaughlin, articulated this very point. APD and US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) corroborated her account. An initial “green light” warning about TdA went out. This set off the bells of increased suspicious activity alerts across several agencies, including the New York State Intelligence Center and the Major County Sheriffs of America. The warning quickly grew more dire. In response, Texas Governor Greg Abbott declared Tren de Aragua a terrorist organization.
Recent investigations have shown serious holes in the veracity of these claims. National scandal experts and officials have long decried a major gap in the evidence. Second, they do not believe that the members of TdA are in fact organizing across the United States to positively coordinate attacks upon law enforcement.
Unpacking the Claims
Much of what has been claimed about Tren de Aragua has raised eyebrows and drawn questions even from experts in organized crime. Rebecca Hanson, a professor at the University of Florida’s Center for Latin American Studies, pointed out critical issues surrounding the intelligence reports. She challenged the leadership structure of TdA and the idea that any mandates could be realistically enforced in the U.S.
“Who are the TdA leaders that direct or sanction activities within or outside of the United States and where are they located?” – Rebecca Hanson
Hanson to further examine the operational independence of TdA’s subsets in the U.S. He even urged having bright line rules as to when they’re allowed to operate in the context of criminal enterprises. These questions point to significant holes in our knowledge about how TdA functions. In addition, privacy advocates have questioned whether it really even presents a threat to U.S. law enforcement.
Additionally, as Hanson stated, she bemoaned the rapid pace at which unproven rumors can develop into damaging charges.
“It very much worries me about the type of information they are looking for and confirming before making these very bombastic claims … It makes me wonder how much police departments care about testing the veracity of these claims.” – Rebecca Hanson
The positive outrage was directed more at the response to these allegations than the allegations themselves. Today, law enforcement agencies are under immense pressure to respond to threats, even without concrete proof backing them up.
The Fallout of Miscommunication
The butterfly effect from the freak intelligence report meant that unsubstantiated information spread like wildfire. Ryan Shapiro, an analyst familiar with law enforcement practices, criticized how thinly sourced intelligence can morph into actionable security reports.
“Thinly sourced intelligence products get repackaged as new security reports, receive coverage from rightwing media, and then get funneled back into additional law enforcement alerts.” – Ryan Shapiro
Fear is exacerbated by the spread of misinformation, especially in vulnerable immigrant communities. Under this chilling atmosphere, law enforcement is empowered to increase their oppressive crackdowns under the auspices of dubious assertions.
Megan Noland, federal agency representative for one of the warning portfolios, declared that
“As we do whenever we receive threat information that is deemed credible, we forwarded that information to our members. Our member agencies continue to monitor any important intelligence related to TdA.” – Megan Noland
First, police departments must operate under a clear and very public mandate to take every threat seriously. That raises questions as to whether they are sufficiently vetting the intelligence ships before they act.
The Broader Implications
The ramifications of labeling Tren de Aragua as a terrorist organization go beyond immediate law enforcement considerations. Here’s the important point that Deep Gulasekaram, a professor of constitutional and immigration law, shared. He emphasized historical parallels where propaganda has been used to justify exclusionary policies against immigrant populations.
“It makes me wonder how fast falsehoods about noncitizens and their danger will make its way through every media channel.” – Deep Gulasekaram
Gulasekaram’s reflections provide crucial context to understand how the narratives created around organizations like TdA can shape public understanding and ultimately, potential policy action. Critics contend that these stories aren’t new. They signal a troubling pattern of targeted, invasive surveillance against immigrant communities as a result of misleading and baseless allegations.
Phil Gunson, a longtime Venezuela analyst based in Caracas. He added that it’s unrealistic to think TdA members could plan attacks in the U.S., undercutting the narrative about the gang’s alleged ability to do so.
“You can trace a direct line from this narrative that bolsters the case that TdA is a nationwide terrorist organization to these clearly unlawful efforts by the [Trump administration] to demonize and even kill Venezuelans on the basis that they are TdA.” – Phil Gunson
Gunson’s points serve as a powerful reminder that these socio-political narratives can easily be used as a weapon against vulnerable communities without much evidence at all.