In recent years, the political landscape of Eastern Europe has been witnessing a notable shift as the influence of "strongman" leaders Viktor Orban of Hungary and Robert Fico of Slovakia appears to be waning. Both leaders, known for their alignment with Russian President Vladimir Putin and their frequent defiance of European Union directives, are facing increasing domestic pressure. Their popularity ratings have seen a decline, with opposition parties gaining momentum. This political transformation is further fueled by public discontent with the EU's handling of undocumented migration and a growing euroskeptic sentiment.
Viktor Orban and Robert Fico have long maintained a stance of skepticism towards the European Union, often resisting its initiatives to distance member states from Moscow. Despite their vocal criticisms of additional military and financial support for Ukraine, both leaders have seen their domestic challenges escalate. In Hungary, opposition leader Peter Magyar's Tisza Party has gained considerable traction, capturing between 35% to 45% support among decided voters. Meanwhile, in Slovakia, Robert Fico narrowly evaded a vote of no confidence in January after his political opponents withdrew their motion, highlighting the precariousness of his position.
"Despite the opposition's withdrawal of a no-confidence motion earlier in January, last week Prime Minister PM Robert Fico saw his governing coalition lose its majority in parliament after four MPs withdrew their support." – Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at risk consultancy Teneo
The domestic landscape in Slovakia has been tumultuous, with Fico facing some of the largest public protests since 1989 against his government's increasingly pro-Russian foreign policy. These demonstrations have spotlighted the growing dissatisfaction among Slovakians with Fico's administration.
"In addition, Fico faced some of the largest public protests since 1989 in opposition to his government's increasingly pro-Russian foreign policy. More demonstrations are planned this week. In the meantime, the latest opinion polls show that opposition Progressive Slovakia has overtaken SMER-SSD [Fico's left-wing populist party] as the most popular party in the country." – Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at risk consultancy Teneo
The shifting political dynamics in Eastern Europe are not isolated incidents but part of a broader trend seen across the continent. Populist parties have gained significant traction over the past decade, driven largely by dissatisfaction with the EU's policies on migration and other issues. However, analysts note a trend towards the political center in several countries, excluding Hungary.
"Where they are in government, they have tended to shift toward the political center, with the notable exception of Hungary. Much of the far right's prospects will therefore depend on whether governments can find more effective ways to deal with the slow-burning migration crisis that is the strongest driver of populist support in the EU." – Analysts
Orban's media strategy in Hungary has focused on emphasizing his international diplomacy and connections with figures like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, portraying him as a pivotal figure in global politics.
"Orban and Fidesz's media are relentlessly emphasizing his international and diplomatic importance through his contacts with Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as well as his 'wise' peace efforts in the Ukraine war and the ostensible great diplomatic achievements of Hungary's EU presidency." – Analysts at the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group
However, Orban is reportedly facing his most challenging year since he first came to power in 2010, casting doubts on his ability to influence the EU's agenda.
"But the reality is that Orban is facing his most difficult year since first coming to power in 2010. This will further undermine his ability to hijack — let alone drive — the EU's agenda as the bloc's preeminent populist leader." – Analysts at the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group
The rise of populist movements has not been limited to Eastern Europe. Across Europe, such parties have gained ground significantly over the last decade. In forthcoming elections in Germany, Austria, and the Czech Republic, anti-EU populist parties could further solidify their standing.
"The re-election of Donald Trump for a second term in the U.S. had seemed to be a clarion call for a structural political shift towards similarly populist, MAGA style movements across Europe." – Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management
However, this anticipated wave of populism has not fully materialized as expected.
"Actually what we are seeing is a somewhat mixed picture across Europe, and actually with many of Trump's apostles being on the back foot." – Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management