The US Dollar is already under the gun. Rising economic worries warn that President Donald Trump’s multibillion-dollar tariffs are likely to stoke inflation and dampen economic growth. Tariffs are at as high as levels that we haven’t seen since World War II. That rise has recently been weighing on the dollar and lifting the EUR/USD currency pair. A number of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries are preparing to publish their preliminary March inflation estimates. This new data further complicates an already complex economic landscape.
US Tariffs and Currency Impact
Everyone is well aware of how the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration has raised inflationary concerns here in the United States. These tariffs have recently reached historic levels not seen since the mid-20th century. Others see them as threats to the country’s economic prosperity. In the short-term, the US Dollar has thus been pulled back, allowing the Euro to appreciate against the US Dollar. This macroeconomic dynamic has weighed on the EUR/USD pair, producing a self-reinforcing positive cycle ideal for EUR bullishness.
The currency markets are on high alert as these machinations take place. Investors and analysts are closely monitoring how these tariffs will influence long-term economic growth and inflation rates in the United States.
Inflation Data Across Central and Eastern Europe
It will be the start of an exciting week ahead, as multiple nations within CEE publish their economic data in quick succession. On Monday, Poland and Slovenia will release their March inflation prints. Slovenia is not expecting any surprises from inflation this month. Continuing the trend on Tuesday, Croatia and Slovakia will publish their inflation numbers. Slovakia’s announcement will come in the context of escalating HICP Eurozone releases.
Czechia will soon be the last of the countries in the region to announce its March inflation rate. These regular releases are indispensable, as they are the only timely window into the economic stability and growth prospects of these nations.
Beyond inflation headlines, Serbia’s economic future has been cast in doubt. The nation will see its February retail sales growth come in. In the absence of new data, speculation remains that Serbia’s inflation forecast will be revised from stable to downcast. This change could be a harbinger of bigger troubles ahead.
Broader Economic Context
Besides the inflation rate, a number of other important economic indicators are scheduled to be released. Serbia, Hungary and Slovenia are releasing their trade data for February. This first release will offer great detail within each country’s trade balance and economic activity. Hungary and Romania producer prices are expected shortly. Predictably, each announcement will offer numerous clues to help you judge the health of your region’s economic fortunes.
In Hungary, the central bank has opted to maintain its policy rate at 6.5%, reflecting a steady approach amid global economic uncertainties. This finding is particularly timely as countries wrestle with competing economic priorities, many of which are consequences of their international trade policy decisions.