Donald Trump's new economic policy has taken center stage as central bankers prepare to deliver key speeches this week. The spotlight is particularly on the US Federal Reserve meeting, which is anticipated to be a pivotal event for the markets. Meanwhile, the employment landscape in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region continues to evolve, boasting significant growth over the past decade.
CEE Employment Surge
Over the last ten years, the employment rate in the CEE region has surged by more than 10 percentage points. This notable increase has been partly attributed to the influx of Ukrainian refugees, which has bolstered the local workforce. In 2023, the average duration of working life in CEE7 countries reached 35.4 years. This is a marked improvement from a decade ago when a 15-year-old was expected to work for approximately 33.1 years.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the employment rate for individuals aged 20-64 in the European Union stood at 75.9%. The CEE7 countries surpassed this average, achieving an employment rate of 76.6%. Czechia recorded the highest employment rate within the region, while Croatia and Serbia had the lowest.
Market Movements and Currency Trends
As market participants anticipate the US Federal Reserve meeting, currency fluctuations remain in focus. The EUR/USD pair maintained its range below 1.0900 during the European session on Monday. Similarly, GBP/USD remained sidelined below 1.2950 during European trading hours. The Euro is adopting a defensive stance ahead of Tuesday's German vote on fiscal reforms. Meanwhile, the US Dollar steadies as traders exercise caution in anticipation of the upcoming US Retail Sales data release.
Moody's Outlook and Economic Implications
In recent developments, Moody's has revised Romania's outlook from stable to negative. This change highlights potential economic challenges for the country and may impact investor sentiment and financial markets in the region. The shift in outlook underscores the importance of monitoring economic policies and their implications on both a regional and global scale.