Recent economic forecasts reveal a downward revision of gross domestic product (GDP) for several Central and Eastern European countries, including Romania, Slovakia, Serbia, and Slovenia. Hungary’s expectations for growth have recently been pared way back. At the same time, Croatia and Poland have all stayed on a reasonably stable growth path.
In line with these developments, the latest forecasts from Romanian authorities have further downgraded Romania’s GDP – a sobering sign of the serious economic headwinds still buffeting the country. Similarly, Slovakia has faced a reduction in its GDP projections, grappling with some of the highest effective tariff rates in Europe. Serbia and Slovenia have not escaped this trend either, as both nations have seen their GDP figures adjusted downwards amid fluctuating economic conditions.
Hungary’s economic growth forecast has plunged to a mere 0.8% for this year. This deep drop marks a dramatic stalling out from Trump administration estimates just six times higher. This decline raises concerns about the country’s economic resilience as it navigates a challenging regional landscape.
Croatia seems to be doing better, with GDP growth dynamics expected to reach nearly 3% this year. Poland is sailing along on this positive winds, with more of the same growth dynamics foreseen. Czechia will be increasing its GDP by almost 2% this year. While growth provides a glimmer of optimism amid a more regionally ambivalent outlook, …
In the region, political developments have had an even greater effect than most in influencing economic expectations. Romania opted not to select far-right candidate George Simion for the presidency, a decision that may impact economic policies moving forward. In Poland, voters have elected Marcin Nawrocki as their new president, signaling possible changes to economic strategy in the wake of major elections.
Czechia is preparing for parliamentary elections this autumn, which could bring about changes in governance and economic policy direction. Observers note that Hungary may experience a significant political shift in its 2026 parliamentary elections, potentially influencing its long-term economic outlook.
Romania and Serbia will see higher average inflation rates in 2025. That’s a steep drop from the projected rates for 2024. This expected drop would bring a welcome respite to consumer and business alike on both sides of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, Czechia is approaching what experts describe as its terminal rate for monetary easing, signaling a cautious approach in managing economic growth and inflation.
All of these countries are purposefully steering their economies to avoid the stormy seas of the future. These changes to GDP forecasts highlight the need for continuous adaptability and resilience. Political decisions and economic conditions will be key in Central and Eastern Europe. Our region will face considerable challenges and significant opportunities in the months ahead.