Serbia is poised to release its final GDP figures for the fourth quarter of 2024 at noon CET today. This announcement will include a detailed breakdown, as well as insights into January's retail sales and industrial output growth. Meanwhile, the global economic landscape observes a shift as tariff uncertainties weigh heavily on the Pound, contrasted by the stability of the US Dollar. The Bank of England (BoE) has maintained a cautious stance amidst these uncertainties.
Simultaneously, the Euro struggles to gain traction despite promising data from Germany, which showcased positive retail sales and import prices. In another development, the full year growth in an unnamed country reached 2.9%, driven primarily by robust household consumption. On the international front, US President Donald Trump has confirmed that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be implemented on March 4th. Additionally, a 10% levy on Chinese imports has been introduced, augmenting the 10% tariff set in place in February.
In Romania, indicative gross funding needs for 2025 are estimated at RON 232 billion, as reported by the Ministry of Finance. In Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) has witnessed an upswing in countries such as Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovenia. However, it experienced a slight decline in three other unspecified countries.
Despite stabilized inflation levels, nominal wage growth is anticipated to decelerate in 2025. Geopolitical tensions persist, potentially increasing consumers' inclination to save. This trend is reflected in the rising saving rate observed throughout the previous year. Notably, Romania's budget deficit widened to 0.58% of GDP in January 2025 compared to 0.45% in January 2024.
In currency markets, CEE currencies have shown strength against the Euro, adding another layer of complexity to the European economic framework. Meanwhile, analysts and investors are keeping a close watch on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for any significant economic cues.
The Serbian GDP figures expected later today are pivotal as they will provide insights into the country's economic performance and consumer behavior through retail sales and industrial output growth metrics from January. These indicators are essential for policymakers and investors alike as they navigate a landscape marked by trade tensions and shifting economic sentiments.
The tariff measures announced by President Trump have introduced an element of unpredictability into global trade relations. The US Dollar remains a favored choice among investors given its safe-haven status amid these developments. The Pound remains vulnerable as market participants await further clarity on trade policies.