The cost of eggs has soared to unprecedented levels in the United States, driven by the devastating impact of avian flu on egg-laying hens. In January, the average price for a dozen eggs reached $4.95, nearly double the price from a year earlier. This surge reflects a broader trend affecting both consumers and producers across the nation.
Avian flu has been a persistent threat to poultry since 2022, leading to significant losses in the egg-laying population. As of February 26, over 12.6 million birds have been infected this year alone. The deadly virus has affected about 166 million birds in the past three years, with January witnessing the highest monthly toll of over 23 million birds. Consequently, egg prices have surpassed previous records, exacerbated by the virus's relentless spread among wild birds that can transmit it across regions.
In response to these challenges, the USDA has announced a $1 billion investment plan aimed at curbing the soaring egg prices. The agency anticipates an increase of 41.1% in egg prices this year, as indicated in their food outlook report dated February 25. The USDA has also maintained a policy of culling entire flocks once bird flu is detected, as the disease spreads rapidly and proves fatal upon infection.
"With production hampered by [avian flu] and elevated egg use tied to Easter promotions just around the corner, it seems all but inevitable that prices will remain elevated for the foreseeable future," – Brian Earnest
Cal-Maine, a major supplier controlling about one-fifth of the U.S. market, faces mounting pressure due to increased demand for cage-free eggs and varying state regulations that have slowed production growth. This disparity between supply and demand has contributed to the ongoing instability in the egg market.
International efforts are underway to address the shortage. Turkey plans to export 420 million eggs to the United States this year as part of a collaborative effort to stabilize supply. Despite these measures, Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board, forecasts that it could take another "three to six months" for the market to stabilize.
"With almost 130 million egg-laying hens lost since 2022, and nearly 31 million hens in 2025 alone, deploying a comprehensive, coordinated response to this aggressive and unceasing threat to egg production has never been more urgent," – Chad Gregory
The complexity of restoring egg production lies in its biological nature. Jayson Lusk emphasizes that expanding the national egg-laying flock is time-consuming due to breeding cycles and stock replenishment.
"Egg production is a biological process. These are live animals that are bred and have breeding stock. And so, there is certainly a time component in adding back capacity to our national egg laying flock," – Jayson Lusk
The avian flu outbreaks have transformed shell egg shortages from regional inconveniences to widespread market disruptions. The USDA acknowledges these challenges and their impact on recovery efforts.
"Shell egg shortages, once limited to certain regions, are impacting most major markets as the continued [avian flu] outbreaks are hindering any attempts at flock recovery," – USDA