Since the beginning of 2025, developing countries have far outpaced forecasts. This would seem to be the case, as a sample of 28 major emerging markets has seen their aggregate GDP growth surpass 1% q/q in both Q1 and Q2. Buoyant exports are driving this unexpected strength. Supportive financial conditions are contributing to a very favorable period for economic growth.
As 2025 progresses, developing nations should see a 4.1% average annual real GDP growth. That growth is forecast to continue through the end of the year. This is no small feat, particularly given the state of the global economy and the continued war and strife in Ukraine and elsewhere. It is not that emerging economies are sailing through storms—far from it. They build on their export strengths and position themselves for emerging market opportunities.
China’s strategic maneuvers are central to this growth narrative. By transshipping products and components through third countries, the country is openly and brazenly bypassing US tariffs. It too is diversifying its markets to make up for losses from reduced trade with the United States. This change is a reflection of an important trend on the rise among developing economies. They are directly looking for new trading partners to reinforce their international clout.
A confluence of factors have made it a golden age for global trade. In particular, businesses are front-loading exports ahead of expected US tariff increases and current moves in the tech sector are already starting to change trade flows. And the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting a 3.7% increase in the volume of all goods exports by 2025. That growth comes on top of a healthy 3% bump in 2024.
Even with this upbeat attitude, specialists warn that the boom in creating economies is expected to slow down in 2026. Those supportive fiscal and monetary policies that supported domestic demand in 2025 will likely run into constraints from here. Central banks should abandon monetary easing as a tool to raise demand, especially with inflation so high. At the same time, fiscal maneuverability is limited by calls to maintain public debt ratios stable.
And although growth in most emerging economies is still strong on average, the disparities within regions are pronounced. These limited data are consistent with growth being unexpectedly strong in Asia as well as Central Europe. Alternatively, Mexico and Chile experienced new activity losses in Q3 2025. This shows the need to recognize the different economic realities that find themselves in the urban, suburban and rural areas adjoining each major metro.
The long-term shift in global trade patterns continues to highlight the potential of adaptive emerging economies. The tech sector boom, despite its inequities, drives lots of short term domestic economic benefits. It makes them more embedded in complex global supply chains. That agility is going to be key to maintaining that growth during increased and changing trade relationships and geopolitical uncertainty.