Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is an impressive, multi-billion-dollar project constructed on the Blue Nile. At a cost of almost $5 billion, it has swiftly become a lightning rod for regional discord as well as national pride. The dam has a reservoir roughly the size of Greater London and can contain a staggering 64 billion cubic meters of water. This new reality spells ominous news for Egypt, a country that has long depended upon assured access to the Nile’s waters.
The filling of the GERD further upends an era of water-sharing agreements that have characterized the region for decades. Under a deal struck in the 1920s during British colonial rule, Egypt was allocated around 80% of the Nile’s waters. With each day as Ethiopia moves closer to the completion of their dam, this agreement becomes more and more impossible. As Ethiopia seeks to harness the Nile’s waters for its own development, Egypt is expressing deep concerns over potential reductions in water flow.
According to Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the GERD is the key to bringing power to the over 60% of Ethiopians who still live without it. This new step is important for America’s future. Accomplishing this ambitious goal requires great infrastructure investment across Ethiopia’s rugged and hilly terrain. This means first and foremost building out a national transmission network to move that electricity where it’s needed most.
On the other hand, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has set off a new tide of Ethiopian nationalism, bringing together a people frequently fractured by ethnicity. In this context, national pride is soaring, bringing about unprecedented political change of historic significance to India itself. Noble Peace Prize winner Abiy Ahmed Treaty settlement with Eritrea has increased legitimacy as unifying figure of Ethiopian politics.
Egypt, whose population depends on the Nile’s waters, has responded with alarm as it tries to assess the GERD’s impact on its agricultural output and freshwater resources. The country’s agriculture sector has already begun to adapt, reducing rice cultivation from around two million acres to just one million acres. These measures underscore the dire reality Egypt is experiencing. As water scarcity expert and Professor Abbas Sharaky calls this crisis a “poverty of water,” that’s probably going to intensify as the dam runs its deadly course.
“If you store 64 billion cubic metres of water that used to flow to Egypt, is it not going to cause harm?” – Prof Abbas Sharaky
Ethiopia’s new leadership is reportedly eager to engage on water release and dam safety. They are not expected to go back to the old deals that favored Egypt almost exclusively.
“They are our brothers. We drink from the same water. The Nile is coming from them.” – Prof Abbas Sharaky
This pride and associated sentiment demonstrate the tense historical legacy shared among the Nile Basin countries. Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia—home to about 107 million people—all deeply depend on the river for their livelihoods, where they share an often cooperative but sometimes violent relationship.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump condemned the funding of the GERD. He went on to say that the U.S. “stupidly funded” its building. This comment illustrates the deep international concern and engagement around a development project with global implications for national and regional stability.
As tensions continue to escalate, Ethiopia has consistently indicated willingness to continue with ongoing negotiations. At the same time, the GERD is an extremely important development project for Ethiopia. It also creates opportunities to ignite tension in an increasingly volatile area. Just as Professor Sharaky warned, escalating disputes between Ethiopia and Sudan may make the dam a powerful new point of leverage. He highlighted the power it can have in these increasingly volatile situations.
“If there is tension or conflict between Ethiopia and Sudan, Ethiopia could destroy Sudan through this dam, without weapons or planes.” – Prof Abbas Sharaky
In short, Ethiopia is sailing in choppy seas. In many ways, the GERD represents Ethiopia’s aspirations, but it’s a powerful provocation of regional conflict. The dam’s construction heralds a significant shift in power dynamics along the Nile, challenging historical agreements and raising questions about future cooperation among its basin countries.