France's President Emmanuel Macron has called for an emergency summit of European leaders in Paris to address pressing concerns about the continent's defence strategy. This urgent meeting reflects growing apprehensions about potential threats, especially following Germany's Defence Minister Boris Pistorius's prediction that Russian President Vladimir Putin could target at least one NATO country within the next five years. The summit aims to explore a more independent European defence system, focusing on Ukraine and the continent's possible exclusion from US-led "peace talks" with Russia.
Macron has consistently advocated for a more integrated and self-reliant European defence mechanism, emphasizing a reduced dependency on the United States. His latest proposal includes halving US defence spending in Europe, particularly on nuclear armaments. This approach has gained significance as former US President Donald Trump frequently criticized NATO, the pillar of European security, creating uncertainties about America's continued commitment to the alliance. Additionally, a study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has highlighted potential risks, suggesting that Trump might withdraw from NATO or decrease US conventional forces stationed in Europe.
The Paris summit will also deliberate on Macron’s proposal to extend French and UK nuclear guarantees to the entirety of Europe, including Ukraine. This initiative involves a joint UK-French nuclear umbrella under the European NATO allies’ supervision, distinctly sidelining the US. The British and French nuclear arsenals together total approximately 520 warheads, equivalent to China's current deterrent force.
"As the only other nuclear power in Europe, Britain is a natural partner for France in any exploration of how to strengthen European deterrence … [They] regularly exchange data about nuclear safety and security … The British and French nuclear arsenals combined come to around 520 warheads, numerically equivalent to China’s current deterrent force. This alone could send a stronger message to Russia." – IISS study
Such a pan-European nuclear shield is politically provocative, with concerns that Putin might perceive it as a direct challenge. Macron's leadership in this debate dates back to 2020, though it has recently gained momentum amidst rising geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, NATO's chief, Mark Rutte, has urged all 32 member states to escalate their defence spending, reinforcing collective security.
The backdrop for these discussions is a shifting US strategic focus. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has signalled that defending Europe may no longer be a priority, hinting at potential troop withdrawals. This sentiment echoes long-standing French arguments that question whether an American president who dismisses many European nations would sacrifice American lives for Europe.
"Thirdly, and most importantly, a US president who loathes or dismisses many European countries is unlikely to risk American lives for Europe." – This argument has circulated in France since the days of Gen Charles de Gaulle
The urgency of an independent European defence strategy resonates with many leaders. Joseph de Weck reflects on the continent’s precarious position, suggesting that gradual security integration is no longer viable.
"Europeans may simply not have the time for gradualism in security integration any more," – Joseph de Weck
Adding to this perspective, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for establishing an "army of Europe" in light of ongoing regional conflicts.
"It was time to create an “army of Europe”" – Volodymyr Zelenskyy
The IISS analysis highlights three primary concerns for French leaders: the potential instability from reduced American military presence, the need for a robust deterrent against Russian aggression, and ensuring that Europe remains a strong global actor.
"French leaders have three main worries," – an analysis published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
Christian Lindner urges European leaders to confront these profound issues head-on during the summit.
"When it comes to peace and freedom in Europe, we must not shy away from these difficult questions." – Lindner