Europe’s aerospace and defence sector is in crisis. Every year, nations across the continent are scrambling to take military capability to another level. Unfortunately, this shift occurs at the same time as decades of chronic underinvestment. Many nations are just beginning to address the fallout from an underdeveloped defense industrial base. Europe has entered a new, pivotal era in European defense spending. This positive change is tempered by the urgent threats and novel competition in the evolving geopolitical environment.
In the past few months, European countries made historic pledges to boost defence spending, with commitments breaking 60 billion euros. This historic increase is a direct answer to increased security needs. People are understanding that dependence on great powers is a risky thing on its own. Countries that were previously wary of spending large amounts of money on their militaries are now seeing the need for self-sufficiency in their defence strategies.
Germany and Poland are at the forefront of this new wave of defence spending. Both nations have quickly topped out their maxed-out budgets, showing a decisive intent to supplement their capacity with increased combat power. Italy and Spain are playing it very safe. As the political and economic landscape continues to evolve, they are considering their next moves very, very closely. The difference in approaches shows the different levels of urgency that countries see in the threat to their national security.
In the past, European defence budgets were stabilised at roughly 1.5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This number has since increased to approximately 2 percent. Long-term projections find a credible path that would bring it to 3 percent by the end of the decade and well below that thereafter. This increase is an important policy departure. Perhaps most importantly, it reflects just how seriously European leaders are starting to take their own national defense.
The decision to increase defence spending represents a significant break from decades of underinvestment and neglect. In fact, for many years now, Europe’s defence industrial base has become considerably fractured. Consequently, countries are increasingly dependent on foreign suppliers for military goods and high tech. The latest commitments are intended as much to rehabilitate some military readiness overseas as to re-energize Europe’s own industrial capacities.
Europe is going through a profound transition. Yet at the same time, it finds itself in the difficult position of having to coordinate competing national interests to develop a cohesive defense strategy. The challenge today isn’t simply adding more money but rather making sure new investments lead to better military capabilities. To meet this urgency, we have seen leaders across Europe discussing the importance of developing collective defence measures and collaborations.
The geopolitical landscape has changed significantly over the past few years, underscoring the need for a strong and agile defence posture. The current and escalating war in Ukraine has led to unprecedented transformation. The war in Ukraine has prompted European nations to reassess their security policies amid increasing adversarial competition with other major world powers. The lessons learned from reliance on external forces have spurred a renewed focus on developing indigenous capabilities and fostering greater autonomy in defence matters.
Collaboration between European countries is crucial. Combined procurement of military assets and joint exercises increase efficiency and overall readiness. Importantly, they saved money by reducing untold duplication of effort. By pooling resources and expertise, European countries can strengthen their collective defence posture and address shared security challenges more effectively.
Agreeing on what level of defence spending is needed and where the priorities lie will be no easy task. With such different economic conditions across the continent, some countries would have difficulty reaching stricter budgetary aims. Unity will be needed as Europe moves forward to patrol their front. By doing so, together we will better promote both our national and collective security.
The fixation on the military purse strings fortunately moves us to ask the more critical question of how we balance military needs with other urgent societal priorities. As nations allocate funds to enhance their military capabilities, they must ensure that investment in education, healthcare, and infrastructure does not suffer. Policymakers are going to have to thread the needle on these competing demands to avoid losing public support for higher defence spending.