The European Union (EU) faces significant challenges in strengthening its defense capabilities, as highlighted by a 23.9% increase in defense spending from 1999 to 2021. Despite these efforts, the EU's defense capacity remains insufficient, especially when compared to the United States, Russia, and China, which have significantly outpaced the EU in defense investments. The EU's strategic position has become increasingly precarious in the face of Russia's aggression, and its reliance on the United States for defense support remains a critical vulnerability.
In March 2022, the EU published the European Strategic Compass, identifying 80 specific actions necessary for member states to enhance their defense capabilities. The European Defence Agency was tasked with identifying gaps in defense capabilities by May 2022. However, the EU's collective defense capacity was virtually nonexistent before the current crisis, underscoring the urgency of developing a coherent strategy.
Germany's resistance to joint debt has complicated efforts to finance EU defense spending. As the probable next German chancellor, Friedrich Merz is unlikely to alter this stance, making it difficult to agree on new forms of financing. This financial impasse has sparked debate about reforming EU finance rules to release additional funds for defense spending.
The European Peace Facility represents a step forward in the EU's defense strategy. However, the EU's spending still falls short of NATO's 2% of GDP target set in 2014. In comparison, the US increased its defense spending by 65.7% from 1999 to 2021, while Russia and China ramped up their spending by 292% and 592%, respectively.
"Everyone agrees that [defense] integration is essential, but everyone wants someone else to go first," said Nick Witney, shedding light on the reluctance of EU member states to take decisive action.
Former MI6 chief Alex Younger criticized the EU's inability to act decisively in response to security threats. The EU's defense capacity remains underdeveloped, with many member states lacking the necessary capabilities to address current challenges. This inadequacy has been a long-standing concern, with repeated strategic reviews failing to produce significant changes.
"Conversations about money and capabilities matter but so does the parallel conversation about people and psychology," stated Nathalie Tocci. "We have looked at Ukraine as indeed the good fight, but we still don’t feel it is our fight. Until and unless we do, we will keep on having these conversations about trade-offs."
The EU's dependence on the US for security remains a contentious issue. The failure to meet defense spending targets weakens the EU's position and complicates its ability to respond independently to threats. Despite numerous wake-up calls, collective action has remained elusive, with each nation prioritizing its own interests over regional solidarity.
The Strategic Compass and other initiatives aim to address these shortcomings, but progress is slow. The need for greater integration and cooperation among EU member states is evident. However, as Witney noted, "everyone wants someone else to go first," reflecting the hesitancy that continues to hinder significant advancement.