Tremendous changes are afoot in the United States electric vehicle (EV) market. The end of federal incentives for EV purchases in September forced many of these moves. Industry leaders Tesla and General Motors (GM) are at the forefront in this fast-developing field. Tesla’s market share is still immense, despite GM’s amazing growth.
Tesla, even with its August price concessions, is still the neck-craning leader in the EV marketplace, holding down about 43.1% market share through September. Thanks to the company’s successful strategy it was able to sell all of 144,668 EVs, 6.8% of its total U.S. sales. Since Tesla does not report sales figures by region, it’s impossible to analyze how well the company is performing in each market.
In 2025, General Motors has taken off in the U.S. EV market. They have since gone on to be the industry leaders, nearly doubling their market share in the process. The big Three’s EV market share increased in the fourth quarter from 7.4% in the second quarter to 7.6% in the first three months of the year. This increase is an encouraging sign for the company. GM is a notable exception to that rule, providing the fewest incentives of any major automaker. This tactical maneuver could increase its emerging market share.
Industry experts and executives are concerned about the potential impact of the end of federal EV incentives on overall sales. Ford CEO Jim Farley just recently publicly expressed concerns about future sales. He wouldn’t be surprised to see that market share for EVs fall off a cliff from 10-12% in September all the way down to 5% when the incentive program stops.
Sales forecast for plug-in electric models in 2024 foresee only about 1.3 million sales of all-electric models. That would be a projected national market share of just under 8%. Yet even with these rosy predictions, smaller EV start-ups like Rivian and Lucid are still crashing down to earth with broad market saturation. Rivian To date, Rivian has only managed to take a paltry 3% of the EV market, and Lucid is hanging on to less than 1%.
The culprit for the ending of these federal incentives is the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” started under the Trump administration. This legislative change has raised concerns about creating a boom-and-bust cycle in EV sales, as analysts and industry leaders anticipate fluctuations driven by consumer behavior and purchasing incentives.
Duncan Aldred, GM president of North America, commented on the company’s position in the changing market landscape:
“No one is in a stronger position for a changing U.S. market than GM.”
Post-incentive era — the landscape is changing very quickly. Actions from leading automakers, by necessity, will lead to bold moves and smart plays that determine the course of EV sales in the U.S.
“We have the best lineup of ICE [internal combustion engine] and EV vehicles we’ve ever had. Our brands have grown market share with consistently strong pricing, and low incentives and inventory.”
As the landscape continues to evolve post-incentive era, the actions and strategies of leading automakers will play a crucial role in shaping the future of electric vehicle sales in the United States.