Evaluating Trump’s Claims on US Tariffs and Trade Balances

Evaluating Trump’s Claims on US Tariffs and Trade Balances

In recent discussions about trade, President Donald Trump asserted that the United States is generating approximately $2 billion a day in tariffs. This claim has raised eyebrows and led to concerns over the validity of those numbers. It’s especially alarming considering the U.S. Treasury Department’s daily reports on customs duties collected so far. This article looks at trade patterns, tariff effects and the broader economic picture as it pertains to these claims.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury also releases daily statements that show the revenues that have come in from customs duties. These remarks close the loop on the federal government’s balance sheet coming from income based on tariffs placed on imported products. The reality is that the U.S. imported $9 billion worth of goods every single day last year. This is truly an astounding number that’s a testament to the size and complexity of the trade operations.

President Trump was correct to single out these examples of trade perversions, especially with regards to Canada and the EU. In 2024 so far, the EU has imported an astounding 164,857 vehicles produced in the U.S. These vehicles were worth a whopping €7.7 billion, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA). As the U.S. exported a large overall swath of ag products, including dairy, this picture is slightly misleading. In 2024, the U.S. exported $1.14 billion of dairy products to our neighbor to the north. This incredible number comes from our friends at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Despite these numbers, President Trump recognized the difficulties that American dairy farmers have been suffering due to the Canadian tariff system.

“Canada charges for our dairy products 270%. Nobody knows that. They charge you 2% for the first two cartons of milk and after that you go up to 270.” – President Trump

The Canadian system allows U.S. dairy products to enter Canada duty-free or at a low tariff rate. That’s true only until a certain quota is reached. Tariffs already placed by Canada can go as high as 241% for milk and 298% for butter. This highly convoluted tariff arrangement creates major obstacles for American dairy exporters trying to enter the lucrative Canadian market.

Those statistics confirm that the U.S. operates a massive trade deficit with China. In 2024, China exported almost $1 trillion more in goods to the U.S. than it imported. In fact, President Trump has rightly called out this kind of imbalance as signs of cheating on trade, time and again.

According to multiple analysts, the average rate of all tariffs imposed during the duration of Trump’s administration are around 22%. However, this calculation assumes that import volumes will just magically stay the same at today’s level. The effects of these tariffs are twofold, both increasing the burden on American consumers and harming diplomatic relations with U.S. trading partners.

In fiscal year 2024, the European Union was the second-largest buyer of U.S. agricultural products, spending $12.8 billion. This transformed the EU into America’s fourth biggest export market, by USDA data. This oft-overlooked relationship may be the most important facet of U.S.-EU trade dynamics in the wake of macro-level debates over tariffs and trade deficits.

President Trump campaigned on his discontent with the trade deals made by the U.S. with its partners. He especially stressed the inequity in car exports.

“You know, we take their millions of cars. They take no cars. They don’t take our farm products. They don’t take anything.” – President Trump

Yet, the U.S. trade relationship with the EU tells quite a different story. In 2022, the EU exported a spectacular 749,170 such cars to the U.S., valued at €38.5 billion. These kinds of statistics play right into the narrative of rampant, continuing trade deficits that President Trump likes to tout.

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