American farmers are living in treacherous times as the aftereffects of the policies being promulgated by Donald Trump’s administration continue to undermine their economic futures. Now, increased federal subsidies and higher trade tariffs are changing that landscape. Simultaneously, the increasing prices of agricultural inputs difficult the loyalty of rural voters who historically had stood firmly by the former president. Farmers are living through some of the most difficult times in generations. The key question going forward is whether they will remain doggedly faithful to Trump or begin to reconsider their support.
Trump more than offset that by increasing federal aid to farmers by $60 billion during his first term. He did this as a down payment on his tax and spending bill. This financial windfall included $7 billion in expanded funding for federal crop insurance. It provided help to farmers facing uncertain climate patterns and tough market conditions. In addition, amid a tariff dispute with China, Trump allocated a $28 billion grant to support farmers affected by decreased exports. These measures were touted as signs of the President’s fierce dedication to the agricultural community. Supporters, like Sid Miller, commissioner of the Texas Department of Agriculture, lauded his work.
It’s not true that there have been no costs associated with Trump’s trade policies. His administration did this through tariffs on Chinese goods. As such, orders for American crops — especially soybeans — from China quickly tanked. Farmers are now facing an extremely risky situation. Trump promised agricultural producers a “little bit of an adjustment period” following the implementation of the tariffs. He encouraged them to look forward to and step into the changes that lie ahead.
“Our farmers are going to have a field day… to our farmers, have a lot of fun, I love you.” – Donald Trump
As rosy and optimistic a picture as Trump portrayed, many farmers are still facing higher costs because of these tariffs. Fertilizer prices, for example, have rocketed by historic proportions. This jump in prices is due in part to trade disputes with our neighbors to the north that have raised the price of potash—a major fertilizer input. This extraordinary increase in costs is compounding the challenge for farmers who are already struggling with ever-shrinking profit margins.
Though many Trump supporters have accused critics of making too much of this tariff war right as it begun, doubt remains. Gil Gullickson, an agricultural expert, noted, “A lot of people say he’s just using tariffs as a bargaining chip, as a bluff.” He added caution with a stark reminder: “I can say: history proves that tariffs don’t end well.”
Rural voters seem to be struggling with a deep ambivalence over Trump’s policies. A recent survey conducted by ActiVote found Trump’s approval rating among rural voters was at 59 percent in August. That was down a bit to 54% in September. Many farmers at the Iowa State Fair expressed their belief that Trump would help American agriculture in the long run.
“We finally have an administration that is prioritising farmers and ranchers,” – Sid Miller
Supporters like Miller emphasize that Trump’s administration advocates for fair treatment of American producers while challenging China on trade issues. As voters go to the polls, many tell pollsters they are worried about the lasting effects of Trump’s tactics. John Maxwell, a farmer attending the Iowa State Fair, said, “We think the tariffs eventually will make us great again,” but he warned that results must come quickly.
“We’re giving him the chance to follow through with the tariffs, but there had better be results,” – Mr Maxwell
Michael Langemeier, a professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University, provided context about the complicated nature of trade negotiations. Miller said that when combined with the uncertainty over trading relationships, decision-making for farmers has become “exceedingly difficult.” “Your trading partner doesn’t know exactly what your position’s going to be next year because it seems like we’re changing the goalposts,” he explained.
Even in the face of these directly abrogating realities, soaring costs and uncertain markets, many farmers are still inclined to support Trump’s style of wrecking ball politics. They think his policies can create a stronger agricultural sector down the road. Ms. Maxwell voiced frustration about how farmers are often portrayed in the media, saying, “We’re not looked at very positively for the most part from the media.” Often, she continued, rural views are marginalized or mocked.
As farmers weigh their options with greater scrutiny on account to the effects of Trump’s policies, they are at a critical juncture. Thousands more are looking to seeing real benefits from today’s trade policies. They are still concerned about the fallout from continued tariff fights. The polarized political climate has further affected the ways in which rural voters view their choices and contend with their support for Trump.
“A lot of times they ignore us or make fun of us,” – Ms Maxwell