France is at a historic inflection point. As it looks down the barrel of political and economic upheavals, its very position within the ranks of Europe is threatened. As President Emmanuel Macron approaches the final 18 months of his second and final term, things have grown very dicey. The nation’s great strengths are its wealth, physical and human infrastructure, and resilient institutions. At the same time, it faces enormous challenges that could make it the next “sick man of Europe.”
Recent months have amplified this chaos that has overtaken the French political scene. France, meanwhile, has gone through five prime ministers in less than two years. Such rapid turnover is unusual, even by the standards of the tumultuous immediate post-war period of Rome. A moderate pro-European centrist, Emmanuel Macron rode to victory on that promise in 2017, vowing to unite the extremes. Today, he is required to steer through a real-world scene that’s chaotic and angry.
Nicolas Baverez, a well known French economist, has labelled France as “paralysed by disorder, impotence and debt.” His comments are symptomatic of deepening panic over our nation’s capacity to effectively govern ourselves as we confront an avalanche of unsustainable public spending. If projections hold, by the end of this decade France’s debt will be higher than IT and ES. It might even rise to a worrying €100 billion per year.
The French parliament has been unable to produce a majority strong enough to pass their budgets organicée. Macron’s ambitions for a deal with the left, specifically with the Socialist Party (PS), aim to foster collaboration amid the dysfunction. The mood continues to be toxic, with unions and far-leftist political parties, like La France Insoumise, agitating citizens to turn against the government’s reform efforts.
On Wednesday of last week, Bloquons Tout called for a national day of protest. This event served as a flashpoint and was indicative of the growing discontent of the citizens. Demonstrators vehemently opposed the sweeping reforms passed by Macron. They especially objected to the widely despised pension reform, which raised the retirement age to 64 and drew intense opposition from workers, students, and other activists.
These protests have deeply affected neighboring countries. Though avidly participated in by the local citizens, national newspapers in Rome and Turin rejoiced with a true “gioia maligna,” or malicious joy, as they reported these events. France’s woes have become riveting to foreign onlookers. In doing so, they draw attention to increasing fears of political instability across Europe.
In reaction to this revolution, Macron responded by naming Sébastien Lecornu for a prime minister just lately. At 39, Lecornu is seen as one of Macron’s most loyal confidants. That his better half almost always has a seat at the table during the late-night whisky-fueled Élysée Palace deliberations. His appointment is particularly fortuitous for the government given the current need to consolidate power and restore public confidence.
Today, public spending has become France’s make-or-break issue. As Françoise Fressoz noted, “We have all become totally addicted to public spending.” Yet this reliance has driven policy decisions on both left and right administrations for the last half-century. Critics claim that this reliance had created a myopia that has prevented an ability to see and address the systemic issues at play.
France’s mega-unemployment is a long-term issue, often running well above UK levels. Economic analysts believe that without much deeper and more ambitious reforms and a more concerted effort among all political parties, France faces continued economic decline.
Economist Philippe Dessertine offered a stark metaphor for the current situation: “It is like we are on a dyke. It seems solid enough. Everyone is standing on it, and they keep telling us it’s solid. Underneath the sea is eating away, until one day it all suddenly collapses.” His quotation succinctly illustrates the fragile state of France’s political and economic situation as it steers through these stormy seas.
Some analysts are cautiously optimistic, noting France’s resilience. Aghion, another economist, stated confidently, “We are not about to go under, Greece-style.” This view shines a light on the high challenges France faces. Despite all of that, its original underlying greatness might still allow it to avoid total calamity.