The French president Emmanuel Macron at home finds himself in the middle of a political crisis. This upheaval follows the resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu just 27 days after taking office. This latest blow adds to the challenges he faces. He’s grappling with a fractured National Assembly and increasing protest from a burgeoning opposition political class.
By appointing Lecornu, Macron ostensibly hoped to add more political muscle to his administration. Nevertheless, his administration continues to be susceptible to no-confidence motions introduced by his government’s opposition. Foreign policy analysts are all but certain that Macron will not step down. He has repeatedly brushed off calls to resign, aware that doing so would force a new presidential election not scheduled to take place until 2027.
The reason France finds itself in such turmoil is largely thanks to Macron’s own choices. Last year, he dissolved parliament in order to clear up “confusion” in a split, fragmented legislative assembly. Regulatory move as an important step. Lecornu’s resignation puts Macron in an even more difficult position going forward. He will have to do so from the shambles of appointing his sixth prime minister in under two years.
Macron has often preferred loyalists from his home centrist political sphere, but this gambit has not succeeded in shoring up his government’s stability. The unfulfilled capitulation to a small inner circle of allies has bankrupted leftist and rightist coalitions alike. This has led to the political landscape growing increasingly precarious.
French political analyst Douglas Yates writes, with great sureness, that Macron will not come out and say he is resigning. As a result, it feels like the obvious answer would be to call for the resignation of a new prime minister.
Yet Macron has actively sought to break this political deadlock. He has now granted Lecornu an additional 48 hours to allow for final discussions with opposition parties. The odds of coming to an agreement seem bleak. Each party acts as though it has its own majority in parliament, making negotiations almost insurmountably difficult.
Macron’s choices moving forward are constrained by a current budget deficit of 5.8% of France’s gross domestic product for 2024. His administration’s budget for 2026 hangs in limbo, with experts predicting that this year’s budget may be rolled over as a stop-gap measure.
If Macron opts for another prime minister, he may consider individuals outside his political circle, potentially from the center-left Socialist Party. Such a move could facilitate the necessary coalition-building to avoid further no-confidence votes.
“I think he would do better by throwing some fresh meat to the center-left who could help him constitute a government and possibly avoid a motion of censure,” Yates suggested, emphasizing the need for Macron to broaden his political alliances.
The broader implications of Macron’s decisions go further than just party politics. Should he call for fresh elections, experts predict that many voters would abandon his party in favor of options aligned more closely with their values on either side of the political spectrum.
“It’s too dangerous for him to do the right thing and he’s unwilling, of course, to step down from power,” noted Yates.
Macron does have some very large hurdles to clear. The longterm stability of his government as well as its ability to tackle urgent concerns such as the budget deficit remains uncertain. Those next steps are now the key for Macron. They will significantly determine what comes next and what will be possible to achieve with the direction of France’s political landscape going forward.