President Emmanuel Macron, President of France, is at a crossroads. As he enters the home stretch of his second term, big choices still await. Macron narrowly succeeded in his recent cabinet reshuffle. He went on to make 39-year-old Sébastien Lecornu his new Prime Minister and is now tasked with charting a course within the sweeping changes, reform and innovation. The political situation in France is quite explosive at the moment. A drawn-out division in parliament and increasing national debt are further eviscerating the nation’s stability.
The political landscape in France has grown more fractious and chaotic. Over the last two years, that turnover has been both swift and staggering. In just over seven weeks, five different prime ministers have entered office. This unusual pace of change has raised alarm and outrage throughout France. Few argue that the nation is not experiencing acute political instability, comparable only to that of Italy’s tumultuous post-war period. After all, Macron just called the National Assembly’s dissolution last June 2024. This move has resulted in a heavily divided parliament, which would make governance extremely challenging.
Macron hopes to form a government coalition with the left, in particular the Socialist Party (PS). This collaboration has proven essential for advancing a budget that meets France’s mounting economic and security challenges. The president seems to think that he can guide the country away from looming disaster, in the face of doubters at all levels. Muhammad Said, AP Critics claim that his administration has taken the full share of the blame for the nation’s woes.
“Emmanuel Macron is the real target of the people’s defiance, and he bears entire responsibility for this shipwreck.” – Nicolas Baverez
France’s economic challenges are stark. The national debt has soared to more than €3 trillion. This figure is equivalent to more than 114% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The cost of servicing this debt will amount to €67 billion this year alone. Some forecasts predict that by the end of this decade France’s annual debt servicing costs will reach €100 billion. This figure could even exceed the debt servicing expenditures of other European countries’ debt.
Many observers are convinced that France will avoid a Greek-style debt crisis. The discordant notes warning of peril for the sustainability of the country’s public finances are getting louder. Philippe Dessertine likens the situation to standing on a seemingly solid dyke that could collapse at any moment under rising economic pressures.
“It is like we are on a dyke. It seems solid enough. Everyone is standing on it, and they keep telling us it’s solid. But underneath the sea is eating away, until one day it all suddenly collapses.” – Philippe Dessertine
Social tensions have exploded in response to these economic precarity. On Thursday, unions that had previously fought these budget plans to a standstill as they emerged demanded a national general strike, underscoring the growing anger among workers. Mass demonstrations organized by unions and left-wing parties have emerged as a response to the government’s plans, signaling widespread dissatisfaction with Macron’s policies.
This approach to governance by the president is very much under the microscope. It’s more like the disastrous approach taken by both left and right administrations for the last half-century. This strategy is meant to more actively use public spending in order to diffuse this discontent and guarantee social peace. Critics say that turning to these stop-gap solutions has dug a deeper hole for the long term.
“We have all become totally addicted to public spending. It’s been the method used by every government for half a century – of left and right – to put out the fires of discontent and buy social peace.” – Françoise Fressoz
The disruptive appointment of Sébastien Lecornu has raised grave concerns over centralizing tendencies in Macron’s leadership style. Lecornu, who has developed a close relationship with Macron through informal late-night talks at the Élysée Palace, is expected to support the president’s vision while navigating the challenging political landscape. Observers suggest that Lecornu’s role may effectively make him an extension of Macron’s leadership.
“With Lecornu, it basically means that Macron is prime minister.” – Philippe Aghion
Those high unemployment numbers can obscure the underlying dynamism of some parts of France’s economy. In fact, the country has shown consistently higher levels of business creation and stronger growth than its neighbor Germany. All of these positive signs pale in comparison to the urgent and unyielding need for fiscal reform, including stabilizing our increasingly unsustainable public finances.
François Bayrou, a veteran centrist politician and son of the southwestern backcountry, has been warning about France’s fiscal course. He warns that debt left unchecked can have disastrous effects. This might provoke international interference from groups such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“At this critical moment, when the very sovereignty and freedom of France and Europe are at stake, France finds itself paralysed by chaos, impotence and debt.” – Nicolas Baverez
Macron is starting the legislative session that he hopes will be a transformative one for his presidency. He faces some very real headwinds from political adversaries and an increasingly impatient public. The path ahead remains fraught with challenges as he attempts to balance urgent economic reforms with maintaining social cohesion amid rising discontent.