For Friedrich Merz, the Federal Chancellor-designate, and member of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), it was a shock. His smooth road to leadership hit serious speed bumps during a Tuesday parliamentary vote on the government. A lot of people expected Merz to win the majority he needs for his official swearing in. He fell short, receiving just 310 votes—even though 316 votes were necessary to secure the chancellorship.
On May 5, 2025, Merz signed the new coalition agreement alongside his counterparts from the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) in Berlin. This deal was projected to enhance his prospects in the looming vote within parliament. Once the ballots were counted, the outcome was far from what was expected.
Merz’s failure to secure a majority has raised questions about the stability of the coalition and its ability to govern effectively. At the time, plenty figured he was a lock to succeed him as the next chancellor. He crafted a solid political architecture for ongoing collaboration among the three parties. The enormous chasm between the votes he actually got and the votes needed to win serves to highlight the very high hill he has to climb politically.
The result of the judgment, regardless of vote, has already started to reverberate throughout financial markets. Following the announcement, Germany’s stock market index, the DAX, extended its losses, trading approximately 1% lower by 9:30 a.m. London time. Investors took flight with the uncertainty about whether or not Merz will survive this strategic blunder.
Political analysts predict second vote for Friedrich Merz to occur within days. Though success is by no means a forgone conclusion given changing party dynamics and ongoing negotiations between the parties in the coalition government. Narrowing unsuccessfully to Merz’s specific mandate would create a challenge for governance and policy-making.
Friedrich Merz, head of the CDU, has not yet officially been sworn in as chancellor. This ruling’s delay is already creating a political firestorm within Germany. How he manages this surprise obstacle will make or break his political prospects – and those of the reform-oriented coalition he leads.