Friedrich Merz, leader of the opposition, center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, just faced a major defeat. His personal ambition to become Germany’s next Chancellor has run into a brick wall. Merz successfully carried his bloc to a victory in the February snap election, handily winning 28.6% of the vote. He miscalculated in the initial round of voting at the Bundestag, losing with just 310 votes when he needed 316 to prevail.
Merz was running to succeed outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz. After a successful first round of secret ballot voting, Merz’s candidacy was moved to a second, runoff round. His team said they were concerned about the optics of a potential third-straight, in-one-year embarrassing defeat.
Merz’s intention is to visit Paris and Warsaw on May 7, 2025. This trip is just the latest testament to his commitment to building international connections, despite political storms back home. At 69 years old, he is unusual in being a big name on the German political scene. He is most famous, perhaps, for his laser-like attention to cost and rock-ribbed conservative principles.
In order to be become Chancellor, a candidate must receive an absolute majority of votes from members of the Bundestag. This requires winning over a majority of members’ votes, plus at least one more vote. Should a candidate fail to achieve this majority in the first round, as Merz did, a second round is held. The Bundestag then has a period of 14 days to elect a new Chancellor.
Merz promised to continue contesting, even after losing the first round outright. He promised action on the growing criticism – from members of his own party and beyond – that has been incredibly damaging to his administration thus far. Alice Weidel, the joint leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), called for a general election. She issued this call in response to Merz’s candidacy.
“Merz should step aside and the way should be cleared for a general election,” – Alice Weidel
Political pundits surely see this occasion as a munity at Merz and his leaders. The proposal has drawn sharp criticism, including a recent op-ed that called it “not a good one.”
“A turning point” and “not a good one,” – Felix Banaszak
The CDU/CSU bloc’s recent electoral success had raised expectations for Merz’s leadership. With last week’s voting result, those dreams are now at risk. Instead, he’s looking toward the next vote. At the same time, enormous pressure builds on him to square the circle and marshal support from across the warring factions within his party.
One of the few successful elements of Olaf Scholz’s short chancellorship was his repeated search to build public trust in democracy. He stated,
“Only if you (the German citizen) have confidence in democracy and its representatives can this democracy succeed. Earning this trust has always been the driving force behind my political commitment.”
Putting this context into perspective, it’s unclear at this point how Merz will shape the contentious road ahead. His course toward any effective leadership lays in how well he can muster solid standing with insiders in his own party. It means bringing other factions in the Bundestag on board.