Danske Bank has released a publication, designed for information purposes, that sheds light on the recent economic developments and future projections across various sectors and regions. The report highlights significant movements in currency markets, industry expectations, and economic growth patterns.
The Sterling found unexpected support from stronger-than-anticipated growth data. In December, the UK's GDP growth registered at 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing projections and lending strength to the pound. The industrial production, services, and manufacturing sectors contributed positively to this outcome. The fourth quarter of 2024 also saw a 0.1% quarterly increase in GDP, reflecting a resilient economic performance despite broader challenges.
Conversely, the Swiss Franc (CHF) experienced a robust session, buoyed by an unexpected rise in Swiss inflation rates. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) projected an inflation rate of 0.3% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2025, which played a significant role in bolstering the currency.
Despite positive growth reports from certain sectors, financial and healthcare services recorded weaker-than-expected performances. This underperformance raises questions about the sustainability of growth in these critical areas. The labor market remains a pivotal factor in the growth outlook for the year, with employment data for the fourth quarter of 2024 anticipated to show a modest increase of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter.
Private consumption is expected to rebound in the forthcoming quarters, offering a glimmer of hope for economic recovery. However, industry weakness is likely to persist over the next six months, potentially hindering overall growth momentum. This period of stagnation aligns with projections from the oil investment survey, which confirms a gradual slowdown in oil investments through 2025.
In Norway, Norges Bank's governor Ida Wolden Bache delivered an annual address that included no new policy signals, leaving market participants to navigate existing economic conditions without fresh guidance from monetary authorities.
Meanwhile, attention is turning towards upcoming US Retail Sales data, set to be a focal point in the coming days. Analysts anticipate this data will provide insights into consumer spending patterns and economic health in one of the world's largest economies.