As the week continues on, the most important economic indicators in the US, Canada and Europe will be in the crosshairs of analysts and investors. Given all that’s going on, this Friday’s data release is especially consequential. It’s got the household spending inflation adjusted rate from Japan, industrial orders from Germany, and a bunch of other pretty big metrics from the United States and Canada. These new figures will offer invaluable information on the vitality of public transit and consumer choice in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.
China’s manufacturing PMI number for November will be released on Monday and sets the stage for a busy week. This metric often serves as a bellwether for the global economy, given China’s substantial influence on international trade and manufacturing. After this, a parade of important economic reports for the rest of the week should help guide tightening and largely dictate market expectations at every turn.
Important Releases on Wednesday
Wednesday brings a trifecta of major economic releases, and they have the potential to shake market sentiments fairly dramatically. The United States will announce its ADP employment change number for November. This much-needed measure will provide greater transparency into new, net private-sector job creation. As such, this is always data analysts’ first look to try to get a read on where the rest of the economy’s employment is going.
Along with the U.S. employment report, the industrial production rate for September comes out on Wednesday. This report provides insights into manufacturing output, mining, and utility production, offering a comprehensive overview of the country’s industrial health.
Perhaps the most economically important release on Wednesday is the ISM non-manufacturing PMI number for November. This closely watched index is a key gauge of business conditions in the services sector, now the largest and most dynamic part of the U.S. economy. PMI data allows economists to quickly judge if the services industry is growing or shrinking. This underlying information provides a much more accurate depiction of the pattern of economic activity.
Australia’s GDP rate for Q3 will also be released on Wednesday. This data will help tell the real story of Australia’s economic performance. It might have wider effects, too, on the value of currencies and trade policy choices in the Asia-Pacific region.
Key Figures to Watch on Friday
As we head into Friday, there are a few key economic reports that we’ll be watching closely. Market watchers have been hanging on for these seminal releases. Japan’s household spending rate will be released, offering insight into consumer behavior in one of the world’s largest economies. Given Japan’s demographic and economic circumstances, this data will be especially useful to gauge the strength of domestic demand.
Germany’s industrial orders rate for October will be noted on Friday as well. This metric is key to indicating future levels of production. Yet it serves as an indicator of the general economic well-being of the Eurozone’s largest member state. Analysts will watch closely for any signs of underlying strength or weakness that may guide European monetary policy.
The UK’s Halifax house prices rate for November, out on Tuesday, will give a further picture of changing house market dynamics in an increasingly divided Britain. Housing wealth has a pronounced effect on consumer sentiment and national economic stability. This new release is hugely important – both to investors and to policymakers.
Further afield, Canada’s employment data for November will be released, adding to the weight of important reports being released on Friday. Employment figures are the most important piece of economic data in determining whether or not the central bank will raise interest rates.
U.S. Economic Indicators Also in Focus
The United States will dominate Friday’s releases with several key indicators that provide insights into consumer behavior and economic growth. PCE core inflation, factory orders, and consumption for September are all about to be released. These reports are vital, as they’re used to measure inflationary pressures and the general change in consumer spending direction.
Additionally, the U.S. University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment figure for December will shed light on consumer confidence heading into the holiday season. This last figure is a key indicator of consumers’ perception — or misperception — of their financial situation and likely spending behavior.
Market participants will be watching these indicators like hawks. Among other things, they’re looking for trends that might shape future monetary policy and market performance in the months ahead.