Donald Trump has made a notable return to the White House, influencing the trading environment significantly. This development comes at a time when the S&P is set to review Romania's rating on Friday, with a potential shift in outlook towards negative. Meanwhile, the economic landscape in Europe continues to evolve, as Germany faces a downward revision in its GDP growth. Ripple, a prominent cryptocurrency, continues its upward rally, breaking past previous technical barriers.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected global economic growth at 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026. In contrast, the United States anticipates improved growth prospects, with its 2025 GDP forecast revised upward to 2.7% from an earlier estimate of 1.7%. This optimism is not mirrored in Europe, where the Eurozone's growth outlook has dimmed, forecasting a GDP growth of only 1.0% for 2025, down from 1.7% predicted a year ago.
Germany's economic revisions are particularly notable, with GDP growth adjusted down by 0.5 percentage points for 2025 to 0.3%, and by 0.3 percentage points for 2026 to 1.1%. These changes reflect broader challenges within the Eurozone. The Central and Eastern European (CEE) region's growth forecast remains under pressure, impacted primarily by adjustments in France and Germany.
Governor Glapinski of Poland's central bank supports delaying interest rate cuts in Poland, citing inflation developments and projections as reasons not to lower rates before 2026. Glapinski previously surprised markets in December by suggesting that monetary easing should be postponed until 2026. However, expectations are mounting for monetary easing to begin in the first half of 2025.
In currency markets, the US Dollar has attracted fresh sellers, eroding much of Friday's gains amid speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year. Meanwhile, the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint have shown marginal strength against the euro over the past week, while the Czech koruna experienced depreciation.
Ripple's rally on Monday continues to capture investors' attention after breaking above its symmetrical triangle pattern last week. This technical breakout signals further gains for the cryptocurrency in a market characterized by volatility and rapid shifts.