In case you missed it, this week brought some major economic headlines from around the world, shedding light on global manufacturing activity and trade balances. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff even went to Moscow himself to hash out the details for the U.S. 28-Point Peace Plan. At the same time, manufacturing indices in Southeast Asia and Japan showed opposite movement. Based on consumer spending during the deeply ingrained Thanksgiving holiday shopping season, we have robust retail activity. Forecasts suggest even more spending on Cyber Monday.
In November, the Philippines PMI dropped to 47.4. This decrease marks a return to negative territory following a brief expansion. By comparison, Indonesia just posted a PMI of 53.3, its fourth month of expansion in a row. The Malaysian manufacturing sector is on the way up! At 50.1, the PMI signals a return to expansion after 17 consecutive months of contraction. Vietnam’s PMI edged down to 53.8, but kept expansion for the fifth consecutive month. These numbers are indicative of the differing economic fortunes in and around the region, due to both global and national realities.
Developments in the United States
We know that U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff recently traveled to Moscow to reinforce the U.S. 28-Point Peace Plan. This new plan is our country’s answer to address these persistent geopolitical rivalries. This diplomatic effort comes on the heels of unprecedented international scrutiny over the stalled peace negotiations. Depending upon the outcome of Witkoff’s discussions, the implications for U.S.-Russia relations and for broader global stability could be enormous.
Initial returns indicated that American consumers were prepared to open their wallets wide for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Consumer behavior experts were thrilled at the prospect of an upcoming spending wave during these shopping fests. Adobe Analytics estimates that consumers spent about $6.4 billion online on Thanksgiving Day alone. The shopping firm is expecting record-breaking spending for Black Friday to $11.7 billion—a jump of 8.3% year-on-year. Projections show that Cyber Monday spending may reach $14.2 billion. That’s an increase of 6.3% from last year.
All of these figures point to consumer confidence staying power. With President Trump aboard, this sentiment bodes well for the economy as we head into a potentially robust holiday season. The increase in retail spending is likely to have a positive effect on overall economic growth and may influence future monetary policy decisions.
Southeast Asia Manufacturing Trends
Southern manufacturing had a totally different November. The Philippines’ PMI dropped from 51.0 to 47.4, signaling a return to contraction after one month of expansion. The statewide decline underscores difficulties experienced by domestic producers as a result of supply chain constraints and COVID-related shifts in demand.
Indonesia’s manufacturing sector proved to be persistent as reflected by a 53.3 PMI, indicating its fourth consecutive month of expansion. This growth should be a result of increased production capacity and stronger demand at home and abroad.
Malaysia has been able to reverse course, with its PMI rising to 50.1. It’s the first time in 17 months that the nation has moved into expansion territory. This upturn is a promising sign that Malaysian manufacturers are on their way to recovering their confidence and readjusting to market demands.
Vietnam’s PMI for November registered at 53.8, although it slightly decreased from the previous month’s figure of 54.5. This is the fifth straight month of expansion in the manufacturing sector. It reflects continued growth, despite a slight dip in performance.
Economic Indicators from Japan and South Korea
Japan CAPEX came in lower than expected. Against this tepid performance, company profits leapt by 19.7%, far exceeding predictions of 3.7%. Such disparities showcase the uneven landscape of Japan’s recovery thus far, as firms make the necessary adjustments to remain agile amidst shifting market demands.
In South Korea, the November trade balance came in at a surplus of $9.7 billion, topping forecasts of $8.1 billion. The country’s construction PMI remained unchanged at 49.4. This indicates that the manufacturing sector is still in contraction mode for the second consecutive month.
Australia’s November Final Manufacturing PMI was unchanged from the preliminary – reaffirming a return to expansion at 51.6. This advance is a welcome sign after a month of contraction and indicates better economic conditions emerging in the area.
Oil Output Policy and China’s Economic Response
As expected, OPEC+ on Sunday decided to maintain its current oil output policy through the first quarter of 2026. The organization came to a design for a capacity mechanism, just as market experts predicted. This decision is meant to prop up oil prices. We are reacting to uncertain, unpredictable global demand and geopolitical tensions that have historically rattled impacted markets for energy.
In a joint meeting last month with representatives of the service sector, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) acted justly. They committed to tackling the duplicative processes and pain points that private companies all over the country are running into. This commitment is a good sign of the Chinese government’s continuing efforts to promote economic growth through the resolution of pressing issues weighing down local enterprises.