The Munich Security Conference, a pivotal gathering for international security policy decision-makers, opens its doors on Friday. This year's conference will see European leaders urging US Vice-President JD Vance to take firmer action against Vladimir Putin before any negotiations commence. As tensions continue to simmer, expectations grow that the United States, either through NATO or independently, will support a potential European-led stabilization force within Ukraine following a ceasefire agreement.
Recent surveys reveal a shift in global perceptions, with the US now seen as a greater risk than Russia in every G7 nation. This perception stems from Donald Trump's proposed "land grabs," which have altered the US's image from "an anchor of stability" to "a risk to be hedged against." The conference coincides with Trump's threats to impose unspecified "reciprocal tariffs" on the European Union, further complicating international relations.
"an anchor of stability, but rather a risk to be hedged against" – Munich Security Conference organisers
Vice-President JD Vance will head the US delegation, accompanied by Defence Secretary Peter Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and US Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg. As they engage with international counterparts, discussions will center on the US's evolving leadership role and proposed terms for a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. The international community faces a critical decision: whether to allow Russia room to maneuver or to pressure it into adhering to a rules-based international order.
"This will in part depend on the international community, which has to decide whether it will give Russia space to do so or instead pressure it into respecting the rules based international order" – Munich Security Conference organisers
The conference also addresses the broader geopolitical landscape, where the United States confronts challenges from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The report warns of a future where more states vie for influence, leading to a potentially chaotic global order. The US's gradual withdrawal from its global leadership role has repercussions beyond military conflicts, affecting environmental policies and responses to extreme weather events.
"Without global leadership of the kind provided by the United States for the past several decades, it is hard to imagine the international community providing global public goods like freedom of navigation or tackling even some of the many grave threats confronting humanity" – Munich Security Conference organisers
The survey indicates that environmental concerns rank as a top risk globally, surpassing geopolitical issues in most countries surveyed, except in the UK and Germany. Meanwhile, Russia continues its push for a Russian-led Eurasian order, reflected in the security treaties presented to the US and NATO in late 2021.
As discussions unfold at the Munich Security Conference, participants will explore the transition from a US-led unipolar world post-Cold War to a multipolar landscape where no single ideology prevails. The complexities of this new world order may see multiple systems coexisting or competing, challenging the reach of the liberal order traditionally led by Western powers.
"We may be living in a world where multiple orders coexist or compete and where little is left of near-universal rules, principles, and patterns of cooperation" – Munich Security Conference organisers
"In such a ‘multi-order’ or ‘multiplex’ world, the liberal order may not necessarily disappear. But its reach will increasingly be restricted to the west, or what is left of it" – Munich Security Conference organisers
Secretary of State Marco Rubio encapsulates this sentiment by highlighting the natural evolution towards a multipolar world. He notes that the unipolar moment following the Cold War was an anomaly and underscores the inevitability of returning to a landscape characterized by multiple great powers.
"It’s not normal for the world to simply have a unipolar power. That was an anomaly. It was a product of the end of the cold war, but eventually you were going to reach back to a point where you had a multipolar world, multi-great powers in different parts of the planet" – Marco Rubio