Gold prices are on the move from all directions as conflicting market, geopolitical and macroeconomic forces intersect. As of last Monday, gold had fallen to $3,330 an ounce, a story of volatility in the recent precious metal market. The trends observed in recent months indicate a complex relationship between gold prices and economic indicators, including Federal Reserve policies and global economic growth.
August has always been a powerful month for gold. As a long play, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has seen an average increase of 1.5% over 60% of the years since its inception in 2006. September has historically been a down month as well, with an average loss of 0.80% in 37% of the years. These patterns point toward a muted bullishness over the next month, especially as market participants calibrate to the new normal.
In April 2025, gold hit an all-time high due to geopolitical events but has since traded mostly sideways. The most recent sell-off has been rejected by a declining resistance line from the all-time high, located between $3,395 and $3,415. This resistance has presented many obstacles for gold’s bullish continuation. On August 8, 2025, the ETF created a double-top. That was right before it gapped down that Monday, foretelling the weakness in price action to come.
Year-to-date, gold is a star, up over 25%. This growth only underscores the intrinsic value of gold as a safehaven asset. Externalities such as import tariffs and the cost of borrowing are driving this large trend. Central banks have been the last active line of defense for gold prices. They are purchasing gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty.
At the moment, gold is caught inside a big symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. This constructive technical pattern suggests that price action is due to tighten. Watch for chop between $3,340 and $3,315 for the time being. If definitive breaks below the key support level of $3,030 occur, larger drops may be in store. This action will likely push rates to the $301-$300 threshold.
This follows Federal Reserve official Raphael Bostic’s recent signal that he, too, is receptive to making a move on interest rates in the near term. This latest statement muddying the waters further is bad enough. Investors are closely watching policy changes by the new monetary committee and how it might impact gold. High borrowing costs and expectations for strong economic growth remain key factors shaping market direction.